This was like the US dollar, but on a shorter time frame. I saw all the reasons for the USD to rise, including when it’s index broke long-term support; but it took forever for the bottom pattern to form and then express itself.
With 10 year yields, I got excited first by the bottoming pattern and then upon overlaying a bullish yields (bearish bonds) thesis on a macro plan that almost makes too much sense to actually come about per one market watcher’s thesis. But it err, makes sense.
So here is the 10 year yield this morning, making another try at resistance after holding the moving averages. If at any such time you see the yield at 2.5% you might want to lock in a macro plan and abide by it. For me it would be the first time in years I’d have such a high confidence level in a projection.
Yields are after all, lurking in a bullish manner below their potential limiters, which would either signal inflation’s failure or act as a gateway to a full frontal Crack Up Boom. As noted recently, I am in full nerd, geek, market dork mode. I believe what’s ahead over the next few months will separate the real workers from the pretenders where market management is concerned.
Tactically, I am finally green on my TBT position, which I’d not only held but added to on the post-FOMC yield decline. Also, the even more leveraged TMV was added and is green. For weeks now I’ve been managing stock/sector positions with yields in mind and noting it all in NFTRH. Yield/sector relationships don’t always make sense on a daily basis, but it seems to shake out that way beyond the short-term.
Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for an in-depth weekly market report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas; or the free eLetter for an introduction to our work. You can also keep up to date with plenty of actionable public content at NFTRH.com by using the email form on the right sidebar. Or follow via Twitter @BiiwiiNFTRH, StockTwits or RSS. Also check out the quality market writers at Biiwii.com.