The Commodity “Outliers”: Uranium, REE & Lithium

Three commodities that have gotten big hype bids over the years include what I call the “outliers”, Uranium, Rate Earth Elements and Lithium.

Way back in the day, the self-named original “Uranium bug”… what was his name? Dines, that’s it; the oUb got us all to see the wonders of u3o8 and its miners. He was sort of the George ‘ride the light’ Gilder, from the immediately preceding tech bubble era. Uranium eventually went back down… way down.

Then came REE, and its big (I guess) China story. That damn China story instigated promotions on a lot of things, from copper to oil to gold. Post-bubble, REE tanked on cue.

Lithium has been a different animal, tied to Tesla, new battery technology and even the US stock market mania in general. Anyway, we had an NFTRH+ on LIT back in January, establishing an initial target of 33 (I personally used SQM as a more pure vehicle). It’s on track…

lit

We have followed REMX each week in NFTRH, but though it was highlighted as looking sneaky bullish before its big move, I personally let it get out of the barn without me.

remx

But we did use REMX as a guide for URA in NFTRH before noting its interesting look publicly last week.

ura

Now, rolling commodity rotation is legend if you’ve been around the sector long enough. It’s as if one quant’s black box finds a play and then the others pile in. Or is it one major hedge fund, followed by the smaller fry? It could also be interpreted as late stage stuff for the sector bounce in general. I will say that URA is getting overbought and is at the pattern’s upside measurement. Now, is this the real U bottom and bull market or just another rolling speculation? The state of the company that actually holds u3o8 makes me somewhat suspect.

uranium

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