Semiconductor Bubble: I Feel Responsible

After all, it was over a year ago that NFTRH was getting bullish the sector against the admonitions of a former subscriber who had a bearish Fred Hickey (a tech “expert”), a bearish Jesse Felder and a bearish Bill Fleckenstein in his quiver (he then quit NFTRH I assume due to my dogged view that Semi was bullish and the gold sector was at risk, and maybe just a little bit due to the attitude with which I delivered said view), and the rest of the investing world was either ignoring the sector or bearish against it.

So the thing was birthed against a huge layer of skepticism, at best. Today it is just a robot… climbing a wall of greed and momentum (but not worry) as players take it ever higher, past all targets I originally laid out for it (930 was, as I recall, the best).


Here is the old monthly chart. How dumb was I in 2014 to only call a normal measured target of 930? By the rules of today’s market, really really dumb.

sox monthly

We started out the bullish view with the Equipment and Materials guys, like AMAT, LRCX, MKSI, CCMP, etc. and today I only own 3 chip guys, SIMO, INTC and TSEM. What a long, strange trip it’s been.

simo intc tsem

Speaking of the Equipment segment, I stopped following its fundamentals when SEMI stopped publishing its ‘bookings’ data, which was THE primary element we used to get bullish a year ago. I’ll have to find time to get back on the site though, because there is lots of other information that can probably build a narrative for the Semi sector. You might want to check it out too. I mean, I can’t do everything! Ha ha ha, just kidding. Do or don’t do as you wish.

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