alice

NFTRH; Post-Tomahawks & Jobs

An eventful day.  The Trump administration is playing its cards and scaring half of the world (not just Russia) about its willingness and capability to act.  This focuses attention on the US and in the sick way much of the world works (in my opinion), garners respect.

Gold went up and I made a post about why it is not a good idea to get bullish and chase the precious metals at times like this.  Not that you needed that reminder, but it was a public service for anyone who might have been feeling gold’s emotional tug this morning.  It is certainly possible that this is as good as it gets for a while in the gold/silver sector.  The same might be said about oil, which also got hyped this morning.

Gold made a marginal new high (not a bad scout for down the road) and eased, while silver got reversed but good.

gld

Oil got rammed right up to about the area we’ve been watching for it and the CRB index (50 & 200 day moving averages) to bounce.

uso

As for the broad stock market, it is the USA Über Alles, at least symbolically, post-Tomahawking.  What’s more, the stock market has had every reason to go down (Fed minutes downward reversal, underwhelming jobs report, Tomahawks, etc.) and it has not gone down.  But these events that get everyone jangled often serve as sentiment clean-outs.  I’d have to say that as long as SPX holds the 50 day (blue) and especially the short-term EMAs 10 & 20, it should be given the benefit of the doubt.  In other words, while in that status this is a consolidation, not a correction.  I never took on any new short positions after my reversal day follies a couple days ago.  That will remain the case as long as the stock market appears in consolidation, as opposed to correction.

spx