It’s funny, as I have talked about the risks in the precious metals (and even done some shorting), I have had ‘but Keith Weiner says the implied fundamentals of gold and silver are well above the market… ‘ in mind as a moderator on the short-term risks. This compromised my ability to have full conviction.
His ‘fundamental’ calculations are software based and inarguable. Mine are eyeball based and subject to interpretation (inter-market relationships, macro backdrop, etc.). We have key technical parameters above which the precious metals complex has not crossed and until it does so, it has been indicated to be on a bounce only, not a new bull phase. As well, the macro has not been constructive with among other things, stocks remaining firm the world over.
And when the US Tomahawked Syria on Friday I got more bearish because you never, but never, knee jerk into gold on war, killing and terror. You slowly buy it when gold bug promoters are silenced through price degradation and the casual market observer is occupied elsewhere. But again, there was a little Keith in my mind saying ‘but the fundamentals are strong for gold and silver… ‘.
As I well know, we all screw up on occasion and so too has Keith. His software had a bad input and it failed to flag it. Thus his fundamentals have been making false readings for some time now and they are not nearly as good as the software had been reporting.
From Keith at Monetary Metals: Mea Culpa
I give him credit for manning up and not sugar coating it. All of us who consume the information provided by others are ultimately responsible for making our own decisions and this just goes to show that false readings can come from anywhere in a software-driven world. I kept a ‘risk’ view of gold and silver simply because of all my other inputs, but I am comforted now to know that Weiner’s data inputs were wrong and so things are making sense to me across the spectrum.
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