You write publicly for long enough and you will have a good little portfolio of items you highlighted, only to have an embarrassing reversal of your thesis take place as the market once again instructs that you are just a little peon who thinks his writing may be worth the time of others.
Exhibit A is BBRY, from the other day. I’ve been holding it and holding it and thought finally that hold was being vindicated. Ah, not so much… as the the analyst community constellating around that stock apparently thought better, or worse, of the sales results for BBRY’s software. Undaunted, I hold.
What I no longer hold however, is Cryolife (CRY) after originally noting it in NFTRH+ Notes segment in a weekly report last summer. I took profit on it too soon, bought it back on the long downward consolidation, also per NFTRH+ Notes, took another good profit, bought back the hard down at the end of November and today, take another profit. I like the story but as I allow overall paper profits for 2016 to be somewhat mitigated in other areas and I look at this chart, not being able to make much sense of it, I say “bird, meet Mr. Hand”. It could well be on its way to a higher high, but right now healthy cash balances and booked profits are a priority.
That will be the stance as we evaluate the Santa → January effect thing, which has underwhelmed so far. I have a grand total of zero short positions because it feels more like a time to manage risk with cash than to be trying to fight still intact trends… which in US stock markets, are up. I have taken enough losses to offset some realized gains and I don’t want to take the chance that the opposite of a January effect takes place in winners like CRY, with tax-gain sellers laying in wait for the new year. Whatever, I’m probably over thinking it, but profit is always good. Cry not.
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