By way of Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist, which itself presented the following by way of Peter Eliades, comes this analysis of the S&P 500 from a time-cycles perspective.
The chart is mine, but the timing and trend line are Peter Eliades’. I have also added volume, which shows the slightest bump up over the last half a year (volatility entered the market in October) after an entire bull market of declining volume. Volume is not dissimilar to the small hitch upward leading into 2008.
The market, as it tends to do at times of change, has been frazzling bulls and bears with a series of jagged ups and downs since September (the ‘swing’ market we have noted) viewable on daily charts.
I continue to hold the SPY short in trying to manage this big picture, with no leverage in order to remain strong on the position. From sentiment, to valuation, to economic indicators, to the above noted cycle it seems to be a market at risk here and now.
We will continue to manage by daily chart parameters and by leadership indicators (Biotech is very interesting in flipping bearish this week) as usual, but the above provides a handy bigger view on the bull market’s status.
I am going to buy Peter Eliades’ full report in order to better educate myself on time cycles currently in play and better inform NFTRH’s analysis over the coming weeks from this perspective, which is not our usual mode.