Ref. a public post about the $RUT this morning. It showed support after a wedge breakdown. RUT is losing that support so far today.
Ref. yesterday’s update about the SPX big picture, the Transports breaking down again, the loss of Biotech leadership, unhealthy sentiment… the point is that ongoing market risk appears to be actualizing into price action to varying degrees.
As for the USD, ref. yesterday’s public post showing that it had dropped to the support zone. Today it is down further into the zone, but is a candidate to bounce.
That would cause upset in the commodity sector. In looking through some chart lists I noted that the chart of the Australia dollar (a commodity currency) had bounced all the way to its first resistance point. Here’s the NFTRH weekly chart. It is just a random item selected to show that the anti-USD bounce has come to a logical point where it could halt, at least temporarily.
On precious metals, we have our parameters. HUI exceeded and then dropped back below 180 (currently 179.87 and thus, grappling for that support). HUI is still technically on its bounce. 173-175 is key support (a loss of that brings 160 back into the picture) but frankly, I don’t want to see 180 given back.
Gold’s April low is 1174.10 and should not go lower than there to avoid a breakdown. Gold is currently around 1180.
Silver’s April low is 15.55 and it must make a higher high to that to avoid a breakdown. Silver is currently around 15.93.
Yield curves are short-term neutral as they are still on a bounce, but dropping a bit over the last few days. Long-term they remain down trending and thus not supportive yet for the gold sector.
Bottom Line
Some good economic data came in and supported interest rates and a bounce in economic growth expectations. Curiously, the USD is down today, but it is entering its projected initial support zone surrounding 94 on the USD index.
The stock market continues to degenerate as its leaders weaken and technicals come under threat.
We are in a ‘risk management’ phase. That can take different forms for different people. For me it means respecting all parameters and defaulting to cash until the situation clears.
Functionally, I still hold NFTRH+ highlights GE, SLCA, SCIF, LSG (3 of which are actually positive so far today) and a few other items.. But generally speaking I am going to respect the parameters and default to cash or hedge long exposure (in addition to existing SPY short) if said parameters start to break down.
