NFTRH Update, Key ETF Charts

GLD is on a weak bull signal.  It must get above the downtrend line or risk fading to neutral or bearish.


SLV continues on its bear signal and sector negative divergence.  2 levels of support are noted.


GDX is on a bull signal.  It is in a cluster of candles that will either be a consolidation prior to new upside or a reversal.  The first support level is noted.


SIL continues to hold above important support and as such continues to be a positive divergence to silver, which is itself a negative one for the sector.  SIL is on a bull/neutral signal (Above the MA 50’s, MACD green but triggered down).


DBC is on a bear signal below the MA 50’s and neckline.


USO is neutral but below a trend line  and resistance.  A bear signal comes with a drop below the MA 50’s and a bull with a rise above the MA 200’s.


UNG is (at least temporarily) added this week as it was mentioned in NFTRH 276 for its breakout.  The 2013 high was 24.09 and the 23(ish) area can be used ‘stop loss’ on the breakout scenario.  Bull signal.


URA dropped hard and pierced the preferred support level.  Another is added below it.  URA is okay above that (15) and starts becoming ‘not okay’ below it.  Bull signal (being tested).


DBA is added this week due to the move in Agri’s.  Resistance was taken out and is now  support.  Neutral and flying toward a bull signal.


TLT continues on its strong bull signal.  Resistance has been turned to support as market fear is now doing the Fed’s job for it.  <– The ETF update tries to keep editorial comments to a minimum, but the contrary implications of the ‘rising rates’ hysteria (in light of the much publicized ‘taper’) has been something of a no brainer.  T bonds are getting the ‘risk OFF’ bid.


SPY is a busy chart.  That is because the US market is now officially very interesting after its robotic bull rally last year.  Support and resistance are shown.  SPY is now bearish for more than just a quick drop.  But the key will be in gauging any bounces that materialize from the support levels noted below.  The US stock market is now a shorting opportunity for the next several weeks at least with a possibility that a major top is already in.


EZU is on a bear signal and losing an important support level.


EEM and its bearishness has been a leader to the downside for global markets.  You may recall that the original measured target was 37.  EEM, let me introduce you to target.  This area (+/-) could be it for short term downside if global markets are going to take bounce from support.


FXI is also at a point of potential support after leading the bear.


Bottom Line

  •  Precious metals continue to show mixed signals (still mostly bullish as of now) in the short term, but the events of January and the first trading day of February have improved the fundamental backdrop for gold mining as a sector.  In particular, gold vs. the US stock market and gold vs. industrial metals have made good moves.  Gold vs. Crude Oil must continue to improve.
  • Commodities are still neutral/bearish on balance.  DBC is bearish but outlier items like Uranium, NatGas and Agriculture are taking turns popping and dropping.  Are they just getting gamed by hedge funds or is there a future rising costs (i.e. inflation effects) issue brewing?  Here we note that the ‘prices paid’ aspect of yesterday’s ISM report was elevated.
  • The US and European stock markets have finally cracked after having been led by Emerging and China.  The focus now shifts to shorting opportunities.  When we discuss potential bounces they are not being discussed from a bullish point of view.  They are noted as potential shorting opportunities or opp’s for people to sell if they have not already.