NFTRH Update, Key ETF Charts

GLD remains on a bull signal.


SLV continues to struggle, but has held the green trend line thus far.  MACD is triggered down and red.  Hence, it remains critical for SLV/Silver to hold this area and turn up.  SLV is on a bear signal below the moving averages.


SLV-GLD [ed. GLD-SLV] ratio shows gold’s out performance of late.  The Gold-Silver ratio has finally come back to relevance where the broad stock market is concerned.  It has been rising and indicating liquidity stress.


GDX is on a bull signal.


SIL turned up from critical support.  As long as it holds that support and MACD does not trigger down it is on a bull signal.


DBC got back above the neckline support.  Weak neutral below the moving averages.


USO is above the 50 day MA’s with MACD up triggered but below 0.  Neutral.


URA is on a bull signal and working its way down from over bought.  Noted support would be the preferred re-buy point.


TLT poked through resistance in a contrary move (to the Fed’s latest bond purchase ‘taper’).  TLT remains on a bull signal.


SPY has dropped to critical support.  It is entering bear signal territory but if it is going to bounce, it should come from this level and not breach the December low on a closing basis.


EZU is also on the verge of bear signal territory below the MA 50’s.


EEM is on a bear signal.


FXI is on a bear signal.


Bottom Line

  • Precious metals remain mostly on bull signals, with silver continuing to nag the bull case.  Silver miners still look constructive so the picture remains bullish (even in the face of today’s pre-market drop).  If silver definitively breaks down we will have to reevaluate the situation with respect to its implications on the entire sector.  As for the sector, support parameters are there for a reason, especially during a grinding bottoming process.  These are ‘stop loss’ parameters if broken, but points above which the analysis remains firm if unbroken.
  • Commodities are neutral(ish).  URA is declining nicely from over bought.
  • Long term Treasury bonds – from which the Fed continues to withdraw buying support – are bullish but could be due for a pullback from over bought levels if the stock market puts on a bounce.
  • Speaking of which, the market is due.  It is ‘due’ or die.  Expect a bounce attempt of some kind from current levels.  US and Euro stocks are on the verge of going very bearish.  EM’s and Asia are a mess.