NFTRH Update 8.29.13, HUI Daily Chart Reviewed

The 60 minute view from yesterday’s update has made a lower low as 260 was violated.  Now HUI is looking for support at the EMA 50 (253). I want to zoom in on the pullback parameters.  A previous update had mentioned 250 as a possible buy point, with risk control at 240.  The chart above puts better definition on that. A drop to the 240 … Continue reading NFTRH Update 8.29.13, HUI Daily Chart Reviewed

NFTRH Update 8.28.13, ‘Real’ PoG & Miners

The problems in the Middle East are messing with an important component of the gold mining fundamental case, crude oil.  So let’s check the status. Gold vs. oil is on a MACD trigger and above critical support by weekly chart. Gold vs. broad commodities is still in a bottoming pattern with critical resistance just above. The hysteria thus far has done nothing to hurt the … Continue reading NFTRH Update 8.28.13, ‘Real’ PoG & Miners

NFTRH Interim Update 8.27.13, Gold, Silver & HUI Rally Status

The target zone is just above for gold.  As you may have seen at the site, I do not care for hype.  Especially when something I worked so hard to be positioned for is coming to a valid target zone. Silver is hurtling toward a very significant resistance zone.  The key level is 26.10, which was the correction low prior to 2013’s climactic decline.  Silver … Continue reading NFTRH Interim Update 8.27.13, Gold, Silver & HUI Rally Status

NFTRH Interim Update 8.23.13, Precious Metals Technical Update

All appears to be going according to our script.  The flag on HUI has dropped right to the preferred support level of 260 and looks bullish. But some measures of sector sentiment continue to be over bullish and silver (the leader) is over bought.  So let’s review the situation as an exercise in sound risk management. The Silver-Gold ratio (SGR) shot up to resistance with … Continue reading NFTRH Interim Update 8.23.13, Precious Metals Technical Update

NFTRH Update 8.20.13, HUI Weekly on Verge of a Key Signal

Last year we managed a ‘W’ bottom by first observing a cross up by weekly MACD and then confirming it with weekly TRIX, which moves slower.  The TRIX triggered (black horizontal dotted line) just as the ‘W’ had finished forming.  Very quick additional gains then came about and HUI blew out a little short of the measured target amid QE hype and relentlessly bearish Silver … Continue reading NFTRH Update 8.20.13, HUI Weekly on Verge of a Key Signal

NFTRH Update 8.20.13, HUI Resistance & Support Parameters

HUI has dutifully stopped at our projected 280+ resistance area.  This was no great call because it always was going to at least hiccup there.  Now, we see where it finds support. The daily chart shows two support areas at or above which a healthy correction can find support prior to a new advance.  240 (+/-) is now the parameter point to what is healthy … Continue reading NFTRH Update 8.20.13, HUI Resistance & Support Parameters

The Bottoming of Deflationary Expectations & the Treasury TIC Data

Here is the chart we have been using in NFTRH, showing inflation protected T bond fund TIP vs. regular T bond fund TLT. This ratio has been bottoming for months now and in the last few weeks had made some failed efforts to break out.  Last week it closed above the bottom pattern neckline. From NFTRH 252: “TIP-TLT can be thought of as a barometer … Continue reading The Bottoming of Deflationary Expectations & the Treasury TIC Data

NFTRH Update 8.16.13, CoT Data

There was a large spike in commercial short interest and some corresponding speculative long interest in silver as of Tuesday.  We can bet that this condition has intensified since then, given the massive bullish activity all week long. We’ll include the graphics in NFTRH 252. This builds on the case for some kind of a reaction in the precious metals given technical resistance and over … Continue reading NFTRH Update 8.16.13, CoT Data

Change

The destruction culminating in late June in the gold price brought out the usual suspects to school us ever since about why gold is all done as a worthy investment in an era of economic revival, compliments of heroic policy making by Ben Bernanke and Associates.  Perceptions are now fully cemented toward policy maker control and a new global growth cycle. These gold-negative voices included … Continue reading Change

NFTRH Update 8.15.13, HUI Nears an Important Target

Here is the weekly chart we have been using for the last few weeks. As you can see Huey is approaching the ‘neckline’ resistance to our projected bottoming pattern.  As this morning’s update pointed out, it is doing so on blistering (panicked?) bullish sentiment.  We should remember that sentiment is just one tool and also that it was pinned at ZERO for months (a supposed … Continue reading NFTRH Update 8.15.13, HUI Nears an Important Target

NFTRH Update 8.15.13, Gold Sector Sentiment

A quick update today.  I am not trying to scare anyone – least of all investors.  But traders should be aware of the following sentiment structure for the ‘Gold Bugs’ category at Sentimentrader.com. This comes just as HUI is coming up to resistance. I am bullish on this sector but volatility will enter the picture sooner or later.  The reading above lurched from 10 to … Continue reading NFTRH Update 8.15.13, Gold Sector Sentiment

NFTRH Interim Update 8.13.13, Precious Metals

The HUI-Gold ratio is above the 50 day averages.  It would be nice to see the 50’s hold as support on any pullback that may crop up.  But we should remember that bottoming like topping, is a process and that the precious metals are volatile, to put it mildly. Daily HUI has done good work toward defining what is happening now as a bottoming process … Continue reading NFTRH Interim Update 8.13.13, Precious Metals