NFTRH Interim Update 8.27.13, Gold, Silver & HUI Rally Status


The target zone is just above for gold.  As you may have seen at the site, I do not care for hype.  Especially when something I worked so hard to be positioned for is coming to a valid target zone.


Silver is hurtling toward a very significant resistance zone.  The key level is 26.10, which was the correction low prior to 2013’s climactic decline.  Silver is over bought and about to get more so.


HUI looks great as it continues to sneak out of the flag we noted in NFTRH 253.  Also I might add, the weekly TRIX is now triggered.  That is excellent and it is notable for the greater rally / new bull market.

But for now and speaking personally, profits are on my mind and I am going to be taking them at any point going forward, considering the above noted resistance levels.  This rally has already made my year, speaking as a non-greedy player.  Gold is gold and I have not worried about it since my 2003 entry.  But the associated speculations will probably be sold into any coming speculative frenzy.

This is not advice to anyone else because [insert here the usual words about everyone’s needs and orientations being different]… It is just a note that I believe a climax of some sort is coming up along with a selling opportunity for those inclined.  Beyond that, the view of macro changes remains firm and 2014 could be very rewarding.

[edit]  Well, the precious metals popped as expected and I did some selling due to the hype quotient on the opening surge even though HUI is neither over bought nor unhealthy looking.  My personal bias is in not being able to remain strong when the investor base is being watered down with momentum players following idiotic analysis like gold is in a new bull market on Syria or the endless taper noise..

Silver’s over bought status has been and remains the biggest threat to the sector on the short term.  At some point if the macro is as I expect gold is going to reassert leadership.  Within this change a hit to the precious metals could come with a hit to the broad markets.  Is today’s gold stock reversal the start of that, despite the non over bought HUI?  Unknown, to me anyway.

It is always a good time to take speculative profits.  I am going to continue taking them.  With silver over bought and near its 200 day EMA and considering the reversal, the correction may have already started with HUI failing to get through the low 280’s resistance.

If this is just a hiccup, my personal plan is to day trade and poke away at individual opportunities until the sector tops out.  I want to focus on a bearish view of the stock market for a while until the precious metals get sorted out.