NFTRH Update, 4.30.13 Broad Market Update

Precious Metals We noted that 1524 is critical resistance for gold. At yesterday’s close it resided at 1475, having risen $150/oz. over the last 2 weeks on an upside reaction from the violent dump to the low 1300’s. There is a preponderance of bearish analysis out there about this rally, which often makes me want to go the other way. But this time the road … Continue reading NFTRH Update, 4.30.13 Broad Market Update

NFTRH Update 4.26.13, HUI 60 min. Current Status

Earlier we noted 275 (a 50% Fib retrace of the rally) as the lower tolerance of the ‘normal’ zone on today’s pullback.  If HUI finishes the day as it currently stands, the pullback is a normal reaction or shakeout.  We could say that the 62% retrace at 270 is normal too, but how far is a trader going to stretch normal?  275 is my personal … Continue reading NFTRH Update 4.26.13, HUI 60 min. Current Status

NFTRH Update 4.26.13, SOX, RUT & Quick Precious Metals Recap

Broad Market The Semiconductors and Small Caps are considered leaders and have led the rally out of the Fiscal Cliff hype from Q4, 2012.  Here is an update of their status. SOX reversed at the upper resistance of 445 and has now dropped below the lower resistance at around 437.  The RUT made short work of our would-have-been neckline (red) and shot higher this week.  … Continue reading NFTRH Update 4.26.13, SOX, RUT & Quick Precious Metals Recap

NFTRH Update 4.25.13, Chirp Chirp… Semiconductor Leadership & Economy View Updated

Well, we have had some nice data coming in that points to a would-be economic deceleration (save for this morning’s positive jobless claims report).  Yet the chip makers have popped pretty substantially.  Even (or especially) Intel, despite the ‘death of the PC’ data that has come in lately.  Regardless, we use the SOX (top panel) as a leading indicator and the AMAT-SOX ratio as a … Continue reading NFTRH Update 4.25.13, Chirp Chirp… Semiconductor Leadership & Economy View Updated

NFTRH Interim Update 4.25.13, HUI Rally Parameters

Huey did what it needed to do as a first – and big – step in negating yet another potential bear flag, as it closed above 280.  This morning (6:05 ET) the metals are firm again and assuming this remains the case it should prove not to have been another flag. I had thought since last Wednesday’s hard down close and capitulation that there could … Continue reading NFTRH Interim Update 4.25.13, HUI Rally Parameters

NFTRH Interim Update 4.24.13, Another Sign of Contraction (Durables)

Let’s remember a theoretically important aspect of the gold sector investment case… economic contraction, which would drive up the real price of gold as measured in commodities. Durable Goods orders came in weaker than expected this morning, joining ‘jobs’ and ISM as recent signs of a deceleration in the inflated economy. It is notable that the gold sector has gotten contrary to the stuff that … Continue reading NFTRH Interim Update 4.24.13, Another Sign of Contraction (Durables)

NFTRH Interim Update 4.24.13, Precious Metals Mid-Week View

Given that the gold-silver ratio continues to rise (implying a coming liquidity contraction) and gold vs. the CCI commodity index tanked to the weekly EMA 300 and bounced (per chart from NFTRH235’s opening segment and this post), I continue to favor gold over silver and commodities. Why “favor” a metal that has crashed?  After all, everybody hates gold right now.  Exactly.  The pervasiveness of the … Continue reading NFTRH Interim Update 4.24.13, Precious Metals Mid-Week View

Is Gold as an Investment Finished?

Excerpted from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 235: Is Gold as an Investment Finished? Before delving deeper into that question, perhaps we should see what the mainstream media thinks.  In fairness to the MSM, we note there are plenty of articles on both sides of the debate.  Yet there has been some media piling-on since the recent hard breakdown in … Continue reading Is Gold as an Investment Finished?

NFTRH Interim Update 4.21.13, Gold Miners Status

Here is a daily chart of the GDX. Last week’s huge volume has thus far not been followed up with anything dynamic to the upside.  In fact, the activity looks like the lame recoveries after previous plunges.  These have taken the form of bear flags that served to reset status from over sold to fuel new declines. What is happening now could be another one … Continue reading NFTRH Interim Update 4.21.13, Gold Miners Status

NFTRH Interim Update 4.21.13, Precious Metals Bounce Parameters

Due to a commitment I made to my wife (some commitments have got to be kept, or else!) I may not have much time in front of a computer today.  So if anything notable and/or dynamic happens I may not be ‘on the spot’. At the moment gold is up about 20 bucks and silver about 20 cents.  We are after all, managing a bounce … Continue reading NFTRH Interim Update 4.21.13, Precious Metals Bounce Parameters

NFTRH Update 4.19.13, HUI Parameters by 60 min. Chart

The chart is fairly self-explanatory.  Huey is settling a little this morning after a strong start and could fill the opening gap and still remain on track for the noted targets of 300 (#1) and 320 (#2) that traders would be looking for (if they haven’t already sold a nice pop). All too often during the bear cycle these ‘normal’ pullbacks have become ‘abnormal’ very … Continue reading NFTRH Update 4.19.13, HUI Parameters by 60 min. Chart

NFTRH Update 4.18.13, HUI Rally Parameters

We are well past amateur hour and heading toward day’s end and the HUI (senior gold stocks) is still holding strong with today’s recovery off of the capitulation into yesterday’s close.  Assuming this remains the case, the daily chart outlines some objectives for a successful trade. The first objective would be a gap fill at around 300.  The second would be the gap at 320 … Continue reading NFTRH Update 4.18.13, HUI Rally Parameters