NFTRH Interim Update 4.21.13, Precious Metals Bounce Parameters

Due to a commitment I made to my wife (some commitments have got to be kept, or else!) I may not have much time in front of a computer today.  So if anything notable and/or dynamic happens I may not be ‘on the spot’.

At the moment gold is up about 20 bucks and silver about 20 cents.  We are after all, managing a bounce in the metals and little more at this point.  A reminder that gold needs to retake 1440 or so to get out of immediate technical danger and ultimately 1525 for a major positive signal.

Silver needs to take back 26.10, which is still a long way higher, to repair its technical damage.  As long as silver resides below that breakdown level, it targets under 20.  These are the current technicals, not what I wish to be.

That said, we are still on a theme that sees the potential that something significant happened last week in the precious metals stocks as another bear flag resolved into another hard breakdown on big volume and then the gold stocks declined almost impulsively into the close on Wednesday.  I keep open the possibility that this could have ended the bear.  At least it had those kinds of characteristics.

Then the HUI low was 262.07 on Friday’s gap fill/test after the initial upward burst.  This needs to hold to support the bull case.  As long as the gold stocks remain above that level, the targets remain 300 and 320.  One might use 262 or just below as a ‘stop loss’ to this trade/investment opportunity.

Gold Stocks (positive):  The power of the recent forced liquidation/capitulation holds the potential of having launched a new bull market.

Gold Stocks (negative):  There is a secular trend line target in the low 200’s and measured topping pattern target of 100.

For now, we continue to manage a bounce without reading more into it just yet.