A brief look at currencies Excerpted from the June 12 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole: Currencies All hail Uncle Buck! Especially those who’ve been guiding their herds against it not only over the last bullish year, but since the bullish Goldilocks flavored up-surge in 2014 and well, ever since I began seriously paying attention to the global macro in 2002. The USD, AKA … Continue reading Currencies (NFTRH 709 excerpt)
I have been nursing a big breakout theory on the Nikkei since it broke out in 2016. I have not held Japanese stocks for most of that time but have stayed aware of the potential of this long ago cast aside market. The target is 35000. They say that the more times resistance is banged at the weaker it becomes. Nikkei may well have been … Continue reading Japan
Look at this chart. Does it not look similar to so many other bounce-a-thon participants right now? Now read the symbol. It’s the Yen tracker flipped over. As the Yen has pulled back within an intermediate uptrend (and it’s inverse bounces within its downtrend) the other stuff has bounced. I just think it is interesting and another marker that is logical to this moment in … Continue reading Another View of the Global Reflationary Bounce…
Yen is sneaking above the SMA 50 to a new short-term high above the July high. Yen and gold had spent much of the last few years as bedfellows, but for the moment at least it appears Yen, which can often have risk ‘off’ tendencies, is trying to escape its golden anchor, which also has risk ‘off’ tendencies. Yen diverged gold in 2015 as well, … Continue reading Japanese Yen Sneaks Upward, Leaves Gold Behind for Now
So I am not going to pretend I’ve got all the answers on a day like this. My broad market longs are very mixed, my shorts are good and my precious metals and ‘inflation trade’ stuff are doing poorly. But for the same reason I did not buy anything on the late week burst upward in the inflatables, I am not selling today’s unwind either. … Continue reading On an Unpleasant Day, Here’s Something Green
Sure, we know the US is flying around up there in blue sky. And we know that the US “man in the middle” is also finally in blue sky. But on the global picture the one I continue to find the most interesting is Japan, because it went decades in the grip of deflation and chronically under performed most other markets. Today Yen-hedge Japan (DXJ … Continue reading Japan at New Highs = Significant
The Nikkei has a erected a Tokyo Tower rivaling the Dow’s Trump Tower in the US. Indeed, for a while now NFTRH has been tracking the prospective look of Japan vs. US with charts like this daily… With the Abe/Kuroda stranglehold still intact… With Abe’s blessing, Kuroda seen heading for another term –The Japan News The Yen is at key support on the daily chart. … Continue reading A Look at Japan’s Nikkei & Yen
In not making a higher high before turning down below the daily SMAs 50 and 200 the Japanese Yen has painted itself vulnerable, at best. We have been noting the constructive look of the Nikkei in NFTRH and with this market especially, the currency aspect plays a big role. Japan’s stock market and its currency have, after all, been pretty well negatively correlated for about … Continue reading Return to the Land of the Sinking Currency?
Just asking because this chart of UUP… …looks somewhat similar to this chart of the Yen (before it formed its right shoulder)… …which we used to gauge a bearish Yen and bullish Japanese stock market last October. To be sure, the two charts have some differences. But if USD makes a small bounce and forms a right shoulder and stays below or drops back below … Continue reading Is Uncle Buck the Johnny Yen of Last Summer?
Not being a casino patron I don’t go to casinos and I don’t often look at or care about Forex. But USD/JPY is special, because of its recent and current macro implications. A year ago we were managing the topping and eventual breakdown in USD/JPY as it turned its trend down in losing the support of the weekly EMA 50. But along the way we … Continue reading Uncle Buck vs. Johnny Yen (and Au, Ag & T Bonds)
Hey, did you know that the Yen has been bearish? Did you know that on October 10, when the Yen was just breaking down we made this NFTRH+ update highlighting a buying opportunity on Yen-hedged Japanese stocks? Enter the MSM to let the world in on the scoop… Stock strategists find a country they like even more than the United States Did you know that … Continue reading CNBC Article Pumps Japan About 1.5 Mos. Too Late
The Euro is just a basket case right now. Daily chart… But I am not interested in the Euro so much as I am in ways to benefit from its weakness. I would like to see the Euro hedged HEDJ use the weekly chart’s EMA 70 as support, as it did at key junctures during the bull phase that blew out in 2015. It also … Continue reading Euro & Yen Continue Down the Bear Path
We’ve been noting a deterioration in the Yen’s technical status lately, which would help Japanese exports and its stock market in general. Here is the daily view of the Yen, giving detail to the toppy looking weekly chart we usually view as part of the multi-currency chart. A lower low to the late August low would just about seal the bearish deal. Turning to the … Continue reading NFTRH+; Yen-Hedged Japan (Look Ahead)
We looked at the precious metals miner ETFs on Tuesday and the status there has not changed. They are still below the EMA 12 & 20 but trying to hold the 50 day moving averages, which means they are still in short-term downtrends and intermediate up trends. For my part, I added a couple items on downside activity (explorer/developer PG.TO just above its MA 200 & royalty/streamer SLW at its MA 50s) but also still hold the DUST and JDST hedges, as noted in the NFTRH 397. This hedging, which sometimes proves unsatisfying could last hours or days. As noted in the previous update, the struggle to hold the MA 50s will decide whether it will have been a quick correction or something deeper.