Stock Market

Notable Public Posts

Closing the 2008 ‘Gap’

A disclaimer:  I am long and/or trading several regular ‘bull stocks’ (as well as short a couple).  Don’t interpret the sober message below as a ‘sell your stocks right now!’ style bearish warning.  Indeed, after an expected choppy start to December I think more bull market mania, errr… rally, could still be ahead.  But it would be just dandy if people would keep their perspective along the way.

From the December 1 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH 267):

Closing the 2008 ‘Gap’

In 2008 market and economic participants suffered a hard downside ‘gap’ in the prices of their assets and in the levels of their expectations.  The bull market that began in March of 2009 is doing a fine job of closing that gap and fully resetting the herd from the utter fear mode of Q4, 2008 to a 2007 or even 1999 style greed mode today.

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December 2, 2013
Notable Public Posts

S&P 500 & Gold Stocks, Mirror Manias

We have been working a theme lately about the mania going on in US stocks (some valuations are not overly manic but policy sure is) and also the one going on in the mirror (a fun house mirror at that) in the ugly precious metals sector.

We are in a time of utter reverence for great and powerful Oz-like people doing not so great things to the rates of interest that would be paid to savers and prudent people (Zero Interest Rate Policy or ZIRP), and doing wonderful things for leverage (substance) users, speculators and asset owners (MBS and long-term T bond buying).

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November 27, 2013
Notable Public Posts

3P’s Supporting Massive Market Speculation

Policy, Profits and Propping… that is without a doubt the underlying fundamental support for a massive and growing phase of market speculation that becomes more dangerous with every week that it lurches forward.  Once again, the chart that proves this in no uncertain terms:

ppp
‘Policy, Profits & Propping‘ courtesy of SlopeCharts

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November 8, 2013
Notable Public Posts

A Cyclical ‘Mini-Me’ to a Big Secular Event?

Ever since the current (final wave 5?) leg in the now 4 year, 7 month old US stock bull market generated in November of 2012, NFTRH has tried to make the point that there is no new secular bull market in US stocks.  Indeed, there is a maturing cyclical bull market that has another 5 (+/-) months to live if it is to match the two previous cycles.  The bubble leader, Russell 2000 does after all have a measured target of 1350 (Kisses Goodbye).

Why do we call the US cyclical stock bull a bubble you ask?  Because of this chart (courtesy of SlopeCharts), variations of which NFTRH subscribers have been repeatedly hit over the head with just to make sure that we know what we are dealing with.

sp500.base.profits

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October 29, 2013
NFTRH Interim Updates

Technical Status: Gold, Silver & Much More…

In response to a subscriber’s request, I am pleased to announce the addition of a simple yet helpful new aspect to the NFTRH service that will be of value to subscribers and potential subscribers who do not always have the time or inclination to wade through the  whole detailed NFTRH report each week.

The NFTRH service will now include clear, uncluttered charts (as follows) focused on a daily time frame for strategic ETF’s.  This is an addition (at no extra charge) to the already well rounded service that includes the detailed weekend letter and interim email/website updates during the week.

We now provide handy and unbiased short to intermediate technical signals for gold (GLD), silver (SLV), gold stocks (GDX), silver stocks (SIL), commodities (DBC), broad US markets (SPY),  Europe (EZU), emerging markets (EEM) and China (FXI).  ETF content is subject to change as their strategic value changes.

This singular aspect of the new NFTRH represents a clearly defined focus on my most basic management tool and capability, i.e. nominal technical analysis simply portrayed with a clear and concise message that is free of detailed theoretical and opinion content.

In the interest of simplicity there will be little talk of support, resistance, volume and measured objectives in this segment of the service.  In short, all we want to know with these charts is ‘are they on bull, bear or neutral signals?’  Very mechanical, very unbiased.

On to our first (complimentary) daily technical report…

gld

GLD is on a bear signal with MACD triggered down, below zero and price below a short term downtrend line and the 50 day moving averages.

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September 30, 2013
Notable Public Posts

The Fed’s Great Adventure in Inflation

In the current policy and media stoked market environment, anything is possible.  It’s  the wonderful, magical world of hands-on policy making.  5 years after the financial crisis, but still not enjoying a ramping economy like the good old (and long gone) days of the last great secular bull market (RIP 2000)?  Just sit back, relax and let the man in charge control the image.

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September 20, 2013
Notable Public Posts

Change

The destruction culminating in late June in the gold price brought out the usual suspects to school us ever since about why gold is all done as a worthy investment…

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August 16, 2013
Notable Public Posts

Silver, Gold and a Global View

Last week the Silver-Gold ratio (SGR) failed to get with the bear memo as the sector got a hard shakeout, and look what happened.  This week through the ups and…

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August 14, 2013
Notable Public Posts

Risk is OFF

Risk is OFF [ed: 'Risk Off' might seem obvious this morning, but NFTRH has been highlighting acute risk in the US stock market since leading indicators - including a sentiment…

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June 24, 2013
Notable Public Posts

Young FrankenMarket Lives

Excerpted from Notes From the Rabbit Hole #237: Young FrankenMarket Lives In failing to take a “healthy” correction to the equivalent of SPX 1350 to 1450 from the upside target…

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May 7, 2013
Notable Public Posts / White Papers

Gold Ratios – An Update

Current gold ratio setups, a real world view of ratio analysis 'White Paper' As the Cyprus drama and other macro events play out and distort normal macro economic signals to…

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March 22, 2013