The Semiconductor sector has an internal warning… As if the economic cycle and thus the stock market did not have enough internal problems (e.g. the CESI divergence to the S&P 500) a cyclical leader, the Semiconductor sector, is suspect as the front end of the market leadership chain (SOX>NDX>SPX), and in its own sector internals. As a reminder, the play coming out of the acute … Continue reading Semi sector flashes a moderate warning
This article calls junk bonds a canary in a coal mine. Analysts often view ructions in the high-yield, or “junk-bond,” market as a canary in the coal mine, or an early warning to when investors might start taking flight from riskier assets altogether. I obviously see bearish junk as a bearish confirmation for the markets, but it’s not a canary. Canaries are/were put in coal … Continue reading Canaries at Odds
I am not talking my book (well, I guess I am if I am a counter-cyclical gold bug) because I am significantly more long than short the market at the moment. I am simply talking a book that does not care what is written in my book, your book or anyone else’s book. In 2013 the Semi and in particular Semi Equipment sector gave its … Continue reading Jobs Are Great! But is the Semi Canary Still Sick?
As in January of 2013 (ahead of an economic up cycle) and Q4 2017-Q1 2018 (ahead of an economic ripple that began in 2018) the Semiconductor sector and in particular its Semi Equipment sub-sector are front and center in forming our analysis about coming events. Excerpted from the January 20th edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 535… Semiconductor Sector – Watch the Early … Continue reading Semiconductor Sector (NFTRH 535 Excerpt)
I have so many charts that I use for NFTRH’s Market Internals segment that I have had to start a new system, color coding the various internals indicators thusly… As you can see by the yellow highlights, I try to get a couple of charts in there each week as well. Anyway, here is a chart we began using back in Q4 2017 after I … Continue reading Q: Semi Equipment Leadership; Just Ugly or Something Worse? A: It was Something Worse
When we were originally alerted to the coming slowdown in Semi Equipment, my industry contact had been working to a Q4 2018 to Q1 2019 game plan for cyclical recovery. Now it seems this may have been pushed out by a quarter, at least. His words exactly… Hi Gary, We see business off about 25-30% from the high over the past year. I suspect it … Continue reading NFTRH; The Latest Word on the Semi Equipment Cycle (high priority)