Semi sector flashes a moderate warning

The Semiconductor sector has an internal warning… As if the economic cycle and thus the stock market did not have enough internal problems (e.g. the CESI divergence to the S&P 500) a cyclical leader, the Semiconductor sector, is suspect as the front end of the market leadership chain (SOX>NDX>SPX), and in its own sector internals. As a reminder, the play coming out of the acute … Continue reading Semi sector flashes a moderate warning

Canaries at Odds

This article calls junk bonds a canary in a coal mine. Analysts often view ructions in the high-yield, or “junk-bond,” market as a canary in the coal mine, or an early warning to when investors might start taking flight from riskier assets altogether. I obviously see bearish junk as a bearish confirmation for the markets, but it’s not a canary. Canaries are/were put in coal … Continue reading Canaries at Odds

Semiconductor Sector (NFTRH 535 Excerpt)

As in January of 2013 (ahead of an economic up cycle) and Q4 2017-Q1 2018 (ahead of an economic ripple that began in 2018) the Semiconductor sector and in particular its Semi Equipment sub-sector are front and center in forming our analysis about coming events. Excerpted from the January 20th edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 535… Semiconductor Sector – Watch the Early … Continue reading Semiconductor Sector (NFTRH 535 Excerpt)

Q: Semi Equipment Leadership; Just Ugly or Something Worse? A: It was Something Worse

I have so many charts that I use for NFTRH’s Market Internals segment that I have had to start a new system, color coding the various internals indicators thusly… As you can see by the yellow highlights, I try to get a couple of charts in there each week as well. Anyway, here is a chart we began using back in Q4 2017 after I … Continue reading Q: Semi Equipment Leadership; Just Ugly or Something Worse? A: It was Something Worse

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NFTRH; The Latest Word on the Semi Equipment Cycle (high priority)

When we were originally alerted to the coming slowdown in Semi Equipment, my industry contact had been working to a Q4 2018 to Q1 2019 game plan for cyclical recovery. Now it seems this may have been pushed out by a quarter, at least. His words exactly… Hi Gary, We see business off about 25-30% from the high over the past year. I suspect it … Continue reading NFTRH; The Latest Word on the Semi Equipment Cycle (high priority)