Market Notes
Well, that was a heck of a post-FOMC reaction. As if the slightly redone wording actually said anything more than 'we may raise interest rates by mid-year and then again,…
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January 29, 2015
NFTRH; Important Resistance Confluence on Gold
Yesterday we updated the hit to the miners and that update still looks valid. It looks like the reaction is just that, a reaction. But also note that the miners…
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January 22, 2015
NFTRH; HUI Daily Chart Status
Let's keep it simple. The gold stock sector is acting very nicely as an anti-market to everything else that is going down of late. It is a microcosm of the…
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January 6, 2015
NFTRH; Market Quick Check
Gold poked above the SMA 50 and 1200 level. This is its minimum requirement to get bullish. Above 1240 and then 1260 would be very constructive. Gold has taken on…
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January 6, 2015
NFTRH; Stock Market / Precious Metals
US Stock Market
After a whipsaw on Tuesday the market made a hard move down yesterday. Amid degrading indicators like bond spreads and sentiment, the Dow and S&P 500 declined over the last 3 days from all time highs.
Our parameters between normal and abnormal are very tight. Let’s check up on them.
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December 11, 2014
HUI vs. SPX
This is an updated view of a chart that was created so long ago I can't even remember it. I just found it rummaging through a chart list. Anyway, it…
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November 20, 2014
NFTRH; HUI Bounce Parameters
The bounce we were speculating about is here and now it is time to manage its upside parameters. A simple weekly chart shows 188 an ultimate decider on whether the…
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November 7, 2014
NFTRH; HUI
Traders be aware that HUI dropped below the 2008 low and is now above it again. It is deeply over sold (weekly chart below) and prone to bounce at any…
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November 5, 2014
NFTRH; HUI Weekly Symmetry
With its position well below the ‘205 parameter’, I am not trying to look for positives because that was below our tolerance to begin with. When the Ukraine hype failed as expected our targets were 220, 210 and finally 205 respectively to keep things in order. They are all history.
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September 30, 2014
NFTRH; Multi Market Update
Gold stocks are down again today and it is now decision time (for the sector if not individuals). That is because the parameter is to not make and hold a new low to the May low on a closing basis. We noted that a bounce is possible and if it is going to happen it should happen around here, at the May low with a similar over sold RSI. Either that or it would be broken with a lower low (that does not reverse quickly).
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September 22, 2014
HUI, Gold & Silver; Fun With Monthly Charts
Outside of the sound practice that is physical gold ownership in a time of monetary gamesmanship, the precious metals sector is all about speculation, at least according to 9 out of 10 chart jockeys and momentum junkies micro managing every short-term twist and turn.
Indeed, NFTRH manages gold, silver and the gold stocks on down to the short-term views as well, but that is only because the long-term views have stated that this is a time to be paying attention. Do we pay attention because we have waited so long to promote our orthodoxy and finally be right as gold bugs? No. We pay attention when a chart tells us to pay attention.
While we manage the shorter-term views (both macro fundamental and technical) rigorously in the weekly report and interim updates, here I’d like to dial out to the big monthly picture with 3 large (click to expand as needed) charts of HUI, Gold and Silver to see their stories, which are the reasons we are managing shorter-term views.
HUI Gold Bugs Index
First HUI monthly reviews the warnings to the analysis from 2012 and 2013. They were very clear and should have kept people out of much of harm’s way with respect to gold stock speculation.
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August 15, 2014
NFTRH; HUI Daily & Weekly Charts
HUI continues to make good improvement by its daily chart, which means that the already constructive weekly chart is gaining the upper hand.
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August 12, 2014
NFTRH; HUI Weekly Chart Perspective
HUI continues to make good progress but until the red neckline is crossed it remains in the same positive, but unconfirmed stance with regard to a new rally leg. The red dotted neckline is part of a downtrend channel just as the green dotted neckline is part of an uptrend channel.
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August 8, 2014
NFTRH; Gold, Silver & Miners TA Status
Gold got blown up in 2 days with respect to the short-term rally. Watch for gold to bottom before silver as we likely transition into a phase of gold leadership over silver. Key support is from the 1300 down to 1270.
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July 16, 2014