Gold stocks are down again today and it is now decision time (for the sector if not individuals). That is because the parameter is to not make and hold a new low to the May low on a closing basis. We noted that a bounce is possible and if it is going to happen it should happen around here, at the May low with a similar over sold RSI. Either that or it would be broken with a lower low (that does not reverse quickly).
On the macro, the Gold-Silver ratio and USD continue to rise together and China demand concerns are in the headlines.
The ’25’ are losing not only a short-term support level but recall that it is a longer-term decision point as well; between big bull potential… or its opposite. The daily is not good.
The item I am already short on, the EM’s are making a lower low to August. Considering the breakdown vs. SPY, this seems like a solid bearish situation and could be setting a new downtrend with the lower low in nominal terms now.
As you can see, the headline indexes in the US are far from bearish still. A lower low to last week’s low could get some bearish stuff going in SPX and NDX.
Meanwhile, the RUT is getting more bearish as it loses the moving averages that I thought it might try to bounce from.
That’s all for now. I just wanted to provide a brief snapshot of a few items for perspective.
