Our furry friends are going to need to make a decision soon. That is because the still-intact bottoming (bounce) patterns we noted on GDX and GDXJ in an NFTRH update…
No folks, I am not a day trader! :-)
But that does not preclude me from dialing in to short-term views, and a short-term view I found interesting was in GDX and GDXJ. When seeing the predictable pullback today my first thought was ‘typical… gold stocks can’t even sustain beyond a day or two’. My second thought was ‘let me look at some charts’ and so…
Yesterday we noted that GDX got zonked on the close and today in what looked like a running of the shorts DUST took an accelerated hit in the last 30…
The bounce we were speculating about is here and now it is time to manage its upside parameters. A simple weekly chart shows 188 an ultimate decider on whether the…
Here is this morning's pre-market NFTRH subscriber update reproduced publicly, with my compliments for anyone interested. I did not want people to fall for yesterday's bounce in the gold sector. …
Gold stocks very logically bounced from the equivalent of HUI 152, which is support from 2008 and the 2002-2003 period as we noted in NFTRH 315. When dealing with these…
The gold stock sector is pulling back today after HUI made a new recovery high of 242.53, just below our anticipated strong resistance zone of 245 to 250. Hopefully, traders have been taking some profit. What comes next for gold stock players is a game plan…
This chart shows HUI dropping through the 205 parameter today. While it is technically at support (and getting sufficiently over sold) as you know, without fundamental incentive, I am not near the view I had in Q4 2008 (buy!). No way, no how. Not without a fundamental case that is engaged and measurable. This update then is simply a technical status check on HUI for those interested.
HUI is coming to 205, as anticipated. That is the key support zone to a big picture bottoming stance.
Ukraine war hype, China demand drop, GOFO mysteries… these are the short term noise inputs on the gold sector.
US Treasury bond yield spreads, gold vs. commodities (i.e. the ‘real’ price of gold), gold vs. the stock market… these are some of the fundamental considerations that actually matter and they have taken a hit since January.
It is easy to say ‘I am bullish in the big picture’ (measured in years) but it is not so easy to actively manage in the smaller pictures (measured in days, weeks and months) with all of the above noise inputs and more bombarding the poor individual player.
We use shorter term charts to manage the shorter time frames. Daily charts have most recently indicated a bearish set up as bear flags formed across the precious metals complex (with the exception of silver, which never got going to begin with) last week. Weekly charts continue to indicate that an extended and oh so grinding bottom may be forming, but that includes the potential for ups and downs, also known as volatility.
There is also a lot of noise lately in the stock market. The US stock bull celebrated its 5th birthday last month. The last 2 cycles (the manic phase of the secular bull ended 2000 and the cyclical bull ended 2007) were each approximately 5 years long. Today let’s retreat to the calm of the long term monthly charts and get a snapshot of the big picture.
The S&P 500 has a measured target of around 2190 that we have had open as a possibility since the big breakout occurred in early 2013. A measured target is just that, a measurement; simple math. It is not a directive and therefore 2190 is not hype, it is just a possibility.
Gold continues to look like it wants to test support at around 1270. A rise above 1300 could put that prospect in the rear view mirror, however.
Data came in weaker this morning with a home sales drop of 3.3% in February. The ‘all one market’ market is cheering to banish the evil spirits released by Janet Yellen last week. Those would be the rising short term interest rate spirits and they are key to our fundamentals.
[edit] Adding an alternative view of HUI
The good news is HUI remains on the plan for a potential Inverted Head & Shoulders bottom.
From time to time during the bull rally in precious metals we will chart the reactionary pullbacks and/or corrections for logical points to initiate, add to or buy back positions. Today we take a look at a few smaller companies that I think are quality situations.