Here is this morning's pre-market NFTRH subscriber update reproduced publicly, with my compliments for anyone interested. I did not want people to fall for yesterday's bounce in the gold sector. …
Gold stocks very logically bounced from the equivalent of HUI 152, which is support from 2008 and the 2002-2003 period as we noted in NFTRH 315. When dealing with these…
The gold stock sector is pulling back today after HUI made a new recovery high of 242.53, just below our anticipated strong resistance zone of 245 to 250. Hopefully, traders have been taking some profit. What comes next for gold stock players is a game plan…
This chart shows HUI dropping through the 205 parameter today. While it is technically at support (and getting sufficiently over sold) as you know, without fundamental incentive, I am not near the view I had in Q4 2008 (buy!). No way, no how. Not without a fundamental case that is engaged and measurable. This update then is simply a technical status check on HUI for those interested.
HUI is coming to 205, as anticipated. That is the key support zone to a big picture bottoming stance.
Ukraine war hype, China demand drop, GOFO mysteries… these are the short term noise inputs on the gold sector.
US Treasury bond yield spreads, gold vs. commodities (i.e. the ‘real’ price of gold), gold vs. the stock market… these are some of the fundamental considerations that actually matter and they have taken a hit since January.
It is easy to say ‘I am bullish in the big picture’ (measured in years) but it is not so easy to actively manage in the smaller pictures (measured in days, weeks and months) with all of the above noise inputs and more bombarding the poor individual player.
We use shorter term charts to manage the shorter time frames. Daily charts have most recently indicated a bearish set up as bear flags formed across the precious metals complex (with the exception of silver, which never got going to begin with) last week. Weekly charts continue to indicate that an extended and oh so grinding bottom may be forming, but that includes the potential for ups and downs, also known as volatility.
There is also a lot of noise lately in the stock market. The US stock bull celebrated its 5th birthday last month. The last 2 cycles (the manic phase of the secular bull ended 2000 and the cyclical bull ended 2007) were each approximately 5 years long. Today let’s retreat to the calm of the long term monthly charts and get a snapshot of the big picture.
The S&P 500 has a measured target of around 2190 that we have had open as a possibility since the big breakout occurred in early 2013. A measured target is just that, a measurement; simple math. It is not a directive and therefore 2190 is not hype, it is just a possibility.
Gold continues to look like it wants to test support at around 1270. A rise above 1300 could put that prospect in the rear view mirror, however.
Data came in weaker this morning with a home sales drop of 3.3% in February. The ‘all one market’ market is cheering to banish the evil spirits released by Janet Yellen last week. Those would be the rising short term interest rate spirits and they are key to our fundamentals.
[edit] Adding an alternative view of HUI
The good news is HUI remains on the plan for a potential Inverted Head & Shoulders bottom.
From time to time during the bull rally in precious metals we will chart the reactionary pullbacks and/or corrections for logical points to initiate, add to or buy back positions. Today we take a look at a few smaller companies that I think are quality situations.
Today there is some turbulence. Good, an extended rally scenario would not want to see the sector fly up to excessively over bought levels all in one big gulp. HUI…
The following is the opening segment of this week’s Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 276:
Somewhere along the road from the 2000 bottom in gold stocks to the 2008 flame out of inflationary hysteria, the gold stock sector went from counter cyclical first mover to ‘inflation trade’ also ran. Gold stocks put in a secular bear market bottom in 2000 just as the US and many global economies were topping out.
Then came the era that NFTRH has labeled ‘Inflation onDemand’ (IoD). The economy was successfully* inflated by Alan Greenspan early in the decade as easy monetary policy fomented an epic credit bubble, which took over and did the heavy lifting for a cyclical bull market and buoyant economy that terminated hard in 2007/2008.
During this time of IoD ‘inflation bulls’ and commodity bulls who had all the answers for a newly inflation-phobic public emerged and took center stage. Misperceptions were formed, cemented and driven home. Nowhere were the misperceptions more intensely and dangerously embedded than the gold stock sector, which at its core is different than most commodity sectors and indeed, most stock sectors. Introducing another one of our ‘busy’ charts to illustrate…
Okay, article over… the chart says it all. No more words necessary! :-)
The chart is a confusing jumble you say? Okay then, let’s take it point by point.
We have been working a theme lately about the mania going on in US stocks (some valuations are not overly manic but policy sure is) and also the one going on in the mirror (a fun house mirror at that) in the ugly precious metals sector.
We are in a time of utter reverence for great and powerful Oz-like people doing not so great things to the rates of interest that would be paid to savers and prudent people (Zero Interest Rate Policy or ZIRP), and doing wonderful things for leverage (substance) users, speculators and asset owners (MBS and long-term T bond buying).
Ever since the current (final wave 5?) leg in the now 4 year, 7 month old US stock bull market generated in November of 2012, NFTRH has tried to make the point that there is no new secular bull market in US stocks. Indeed, there is a maturing cyclical bull market that has another 5 (+/-) months to live if it is to match the two previous cycles. The bubble leader, Russell 2000 does after all have a measured target of 1350 (Kisses Goodbye).
Why do we call the US cyclical stock bull a bubble you ask? Because of this chart (courtesy of SlopeCharts), variations of which NFTRH subscribers have been repeatedly hit over the head with just to make sure that we know what we are dealing with.
