XLE, energy sector (oil and gas)

“Last inflated man standing” feels a bit of heat [w/ edit]

[edit] And so a perfectly good topping situation is wrecked. Or is it? Today’s chart would show the potential for a reverse Symmetrical Triangle topping/reversal pattern. But it would also show potential to ding a new high before topping. Regardless, my outstanding profit is now a minuscule one and I’ve taken it on half the position and probably will on the remainder. I generally don’t … Continue reading “Last inflated man standing” feels a bit of heat [w/ edit]

Commodity tracker dunks below the SMA 200

Commodities are starting to crack Disclaimer: commodities are notorious for rotation, as if the hedgies, quants and black boxes are playing Whack-a-Mole, roving the landscape rotating to the next play before they leave it high and dry. But here is the CRB tracker DBC doing something pretty notable, don’t you think? Even as DBC has out-performed the broad SPX since July (lower panel) its nominal … Continue reading Commodity tracker dunks below the SMA 200

NFTRH+; Seasonal averages for several commodities, including Au & Ag

With all due caveats about seasonal averages (these cover 30 years) and the variations from them in any given year, below are the facts of what these commodities have done, on average over those years. Gold’s current bounce is matching a sweet spot on the average, where an interim top comes in October and a secondary low in December before a hard bottom and upturn. … Continue reading NFTRH+; Seasonal averages for several commodities, including Au & Ag