NFTRH Update, Yield Spreads
A simple update noting that the 30 to 5 year Treasury yield spread has dropped again to a fresh low after 2 up days.
A simple update noting that the 30 to 5 year Treasury yield spread has dropped again to a fresh low after 2 up days.
With reference to an earlier public post showing the EEM breakout today, you may recall that I use EMF for Emerging Market investment and TDF for China/Asia. Both are managed by Marc Mobius of Templeton.
I am cooling my heels at the allergist's office. I almost bid goodbye to this world a couple times due to Yellow Jacket stings and now am a bee venom…
Data came in weaker this morning with a home sales drop of 3.3% in February. The ‘all one market’ market is cheering to banish the evil spirits released by Janet Yellen last week. Those would be the rising short term interest rate spirits and they are key to our fundamentals.
In reviewing the second of the two HUI weekly charts of the previous update, I want to blow the view up and illustrate the symmetry between the current ‘down from neckline’ vs. the previous ‘up to neckline’.
[edit] Adding an alternative view of HUI
The good news is HUI remains on the plan for a potential Inverted Head & Shoulders bottom.
Yellen Speaks
I had to go out for the rest of the day right after the FOMC release. I came back to a fairly unsurprising mess in the precious metals, and a negative stock market. It turns out I missed the market’s little fit as Janet Yellen hinted that the Fed might raise the Funds rate a little sooner and a little more steeply than the market had anticipated. A little.
GLD turned last week’s resistance to support, which is now being tested as Ukraine hype unwinds and FOMC looms. This is a still bullish chart working off an over bought condition.
It is interesting how sometimes a chart will do what it thinks it is supposed to do, even in the face of other information that says it should do something else. Silver’s chart, as we have been noting, was supposed to test support and that is what it has been doing while the rest of the precious metals complex rises.
GLD is in consolidation at resistance. It is bullish until proven otherwise. Support is anywhere from the visual lateral support at 122 to the gap and moving average convergence around 125.
It had been noted that I sold URG with some level of remorse. Well that impulse is responsible for my having bought back part of the position today before it got to the noted support around 1.50. That’s between URG and me.
GLD has reached the resistance that is the initial objective for the rally off the December bottom. On its bull signal but at a logical point of consolidation or reaction.
Precious Metals
Understand that I am making no assumptions here because the analysis has been constructive on a continuing rally (or even cyclical bull market) for the precious metals sector.
From time to time during the bull rally in precious metals we will chart the reactionary pullbacks and/or corrections for logical points to initiate, add to or buy back positions. Today we take a look at a few smaller companies that I think are quality situations.