With all due disclaimers about FOMC week and gold’s bearish CoT structure, we note the following gold miner pullbacks on daily charts. With reference to the minor support level of 19 noted in an update on GDX yesterday (HUI 160-165) and the possibility that short-term support could be found there…
NGD hit its equivalent support at around 3.40.
Normally I want to try to avoid updates about what I am doing with personal trading, especially during emotional, hype-filled weeks like FOMC week. But with the gold sector so in the spotlight lately and with my stance (about the risk of a correction) I assume well known, I wanted to update you on a move I am making this morning.
Silver Standard got bonked on its recent acquisition of Claude Resources, but according to ‘FL’, who long-time subscribers may remember as being an NFTRH subscriber who was also a trusted fundamental mining analyst, the deal could have similarities to the Kirkland Lake/St. Andrews deal that took place earlier this year. You may recall that KGI.TO dropped hard after the deal was announced. It has since gone vertical.
Today we had the 2nd down day in a row until a reversal took hold. As noted at the site I got lucky and covered the short against NUGT before this happened. It was due to the old ‘don’t be greedy’ code and lots of unpleasant experience. This after adding GDX yesterday, as noted in an earlier post. I still think it would be for the best if GDX eventually works its way down to 16.50 to 17 (HUI 140) and the rolling MACD may imply this. But there is a small support shelf here and if it holds there could yet be a new short-term high. We’ll just have to wait and see what the market thinks.
As you may know, I have been bearish the Emerging Markets due to the big picture monthly chart breakdown by the MSCI EM index and iShares ETF. But in pulling an EEM/SPY chart I found this bottomy looking thing…
Stock Markets
US stock markets probed a bit further into the resistance (and if current analysis is correct, topping) zone equivalent to SPX 2000-2030 yesterday, closing at a new recovery high.
Updating the short and long-term views of XLE and sending to the entire list as it is a sector of interest to so many economies and markets and thus, of macro concern.
XLE Daily broke above the key resistance level yesterday and assuming we have a weekly close above it tomorrow, that is now support. Indeed, it is tentative support now but I kept it red to play devil’s advocate. A reasonable measurement from the pattern is 64-65. That is for the traders among us.
As you may know, I have a friend in junior mining analyst ‘Otto Rock’ from IKN. As is noted each week on the last page of NFTRH reports, I recommend his work because it is put forth honestly and he calls it like it is, whether that makes him look good or not. Point being, I trust the guy as a nugget of gold among the lumps of coal that make up the gold stock analyst community.
Understand that in-day moves can also be whipsaws, so take them for what they are; current views and not a daily or weekly close, which are firmer.
GLD is breaking the Triangle. If this is successful, the next stop might be 1308 for gold per this morning’s update.
We will cover the wider spectrum in the weekly reports, but here I want to boil it down to the US stock market and the gold sector and keep it simple, as we are currently managing opposing views in these two items.
S&P 500: Bearish but on a bounce, as anticipated.
Gold sector: Bullish and so far resisting taking any sort of substantial pullback.
SPX finally turned the resistance at 1947 (middle point of the ‘W’) to support and now proceeds on its way toward target (2000 +/-, expanded to 2030).
As you know, we have the energy sector (XLE) as an ongoing situation from both long-term (monthly view, for investors) and short-term (daily, for traders). Crude Oil fund USO is…
Stock Market SPX is back below the key short-term resistance line and the 50 day EMA and SMA. We are back on watch for the EMA 20 (orange dotted) as…
This is as much an excuse to test the NFTRH+ 'opt-in' list as it is a reason to update the energy sector (XLE). At the next regular update I will…
After noting 1947 as the key short-term resistance for SPX we find it right back there testing that level. This after a drop yesterday and hold above the EMA 20,…