NFTRH Interim Updates

alice
NFTRH Interim Updates

Silver-Gold Ratio and the ‘Inflation Trade’

The Silver-Gold ratio (SGR) has been a primary indicator we have awaited for a confirmation that a phase of overt inflationary effects may get under way.  This would have implications for everything from commodities to resource based economies (like many emerging markets).  It is one of the ‘market-based’ inflation indicators we have discussed; a metallic “credit spread” as Bob Hoye calls it. When silver leads, price increases across many other asset classes are more likely.

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April 12, 2016
nftrh plus
NFTRH Interim Updates / NFTRH+

NFTRH+; SSYS

If we are correct in viewing the beaten down US manufacturing sector as a better place to be long (ref. recent ISM data) than the over valued likes of the general market, then we would want to focus on ‘best of breed’ in the sector.  I have often noted Faro as being a great and innovative company.  I have had a lot of negative things to say about 3D Printing as an investment destination (though the technology itself is fabulous).  But Stratasys is in my opinion best of breed in this beaten down space.

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April 7, 2016
alice
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; Extensive Precious Metals Update w/ Daily Charts

In the weekend report we used weekly charts to show that gold has taken a good chunk of its apparent price risk out as key support was not too far away beginning in the 1180’s.  Silver had lost the breakout above the would-be supportive EMA 55 and HUI was well above key support, now 140 (lateral support at October highs) to 148 (gently rising EMA 55).  We have also been noting 211 as the point that greatly improves the prospects of a bull market, technically (I think the probabilities are that one is in progress, but the technicals are what they are).

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April 7, 2016
alice
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; Another ‘what if?’

On a similar theme to the earlier update whereby the long bond is seeing extreme relative short interest by Commercial traders, let’s compare the 30 year vs. the 2 year.

The 30 year shows a big build up in net shorts by the Commercial Hedgers.

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April 6, 2016
alice
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; A ‘what if?’ Exercise

Because I want to look around as many corners as possible (without donning the tin foil hat), I had a thought that is at odds with the view that the bear phase will resume/continue.  It is also at odds with a bullish view of gold for the near-term.

So please consider it a mental exercise, the likes of which can be healthy if we keep these things in perspective and in their proper place in the probabilities tool box.

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April 6, 2016
nftrh plus
NFTRH Interim Updates / NFTRH+

NFTRH+; Russell 2000 Short Setup

Here is the (weekly) Russell 2000 chart we used in 2015 to show that a moving average cross and a similar looking pattern have occurred that resulted in severe downside in 2008.  I think we can disqualify the 2011 ‘comp’ because that moving average cross was quickly reversed and the current one, despite the big rally, is nowhere near being undone.

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April 6, 2016
alice
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; A ‘Look-Ahead’ at Investments for a Weak Dollar

A look-ahead to some of the US and global markets and sectors that would benefit from a weaker dollar, which is the theme shaping up on the macro as the Fed backs away from support of the currency and joins the global currency Whack-a-Mole game.  Obviously, that which has suffered disproportionately under a strong dollar regime would benefit if/as it weakens.

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March 31, 2016
alice
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; Post-Yellen

Today I did something I rarely do and listened to nearly the entire Yellen speech.  The reason I usually don’t listen to these things is because I don’t want to get caught in a mental whipsaw if markets start reacting to the jawbone du jour.  But considering that in March alone the FOMC meeting (ultra dovish) and the subsequent clown show (hawks in drag paraded out just a week later) I felt that I needed some signals from Yellen.

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March 29, 2016
alice
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; TIP, TLT and Their Messages

We have reviewed TIP and TLT nominally by weekly charts as they were a previous NFTRH+ double highlight on Treasury bond funds, inflation protected (TIP) and nominal (TLT).  Each continues to have a bullish slant by the weeklies.

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March 28, 2016
alice
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; Precious Metals Pullback Objectives

The theme is that the pullbacks and/or corrections, will come.  The terror attack in Brussels may have been the flashpoint for such a pullback.  As noted in a public post, gold’s rise on the fear or ‘safe haven’ bid (I shorted it) is not a good thing for the gold price beyond the flashpoint.  The only terrorism that matters for gold is Central Banking terror committed upon currencies and financial systems.

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March 23, 2016
alice
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH Update; Healthcare Stocks

During a week when I am being compelled to evaluate whether the ‘market bounce termination’ view will be correct (it has exceeded target, after all, though I am giving it wiggle room) and hence, whether my short on SPY will be correct, let’s take a look at one specific sector, Healthcare, which includes Medical Devices, Services, Pharma and Biotech.

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March 22, 2016