Folks, it may be the simplest update I’ve ever sent. The Silver-Gold ratio is one of our gauges of a would-be inflationary environment to come (beneficial to commodities and other assets as noted so often previously). Today the Silver-Gold ratio is making another move in the positive direction, with a big spike in relative volume by SLV/GLD.
Here are the updated charts from this morning’s update. SPX and Dow are at resistance, NDX is at its first resistance level and SOX is approaching the 670 area, which was identified as its key resistance.
SPX and Dow nudged above yesterday’s highs and could open the door to further bouncing, but even if they get through resistance – as SOX potentially bounces to 670’s – the 50 day averages would represent more resistance. It was a good day for the bulls, short covering or not. But the bears took the ball away from the bulls on Monday and they still have it for now.
Daily technicals with no cluttering fundamental or sentiment commentary.
HUI hit resistance above 240 in the form of the neckline to a pattern that could actually prove bullish. I have been thinking at least the first gap may fill but so far, it’s not happening. The pattern, which some would call an Inverted H&S (bullish reversal) is actually a consolidation of some kind with a bullish look to it. If it were to play out that way it measures to around 275.
Since the market is up handily in ‘pre’, I wanted to get you a look at what it would take to negate the technical damage of the last 2 days, with very simple daily charts of the headline US indexes (plus the SOX). This can be applied generally, to any index or stock for that matter. As of now in pre-market, these items are still well below key resistance levels.
[edit] Post was accidentally not password protected. So be it…
Please pardon the NFTRH+ updates to the general subscriber base, but I consider everything going on this week macro related and relevant. So these serve as regular updates as well.
This week has been a gamble. If you’re a stock bull you lose, if you’re a gold bull, you win. This morning’s reaction to Britain’s exit from the EU is pure casino stuff, practically speaking as an investor in the very short-term.
From Tuesday’s update (with an updated chart of the VIX)…
We have been talking about more dynamic items like the Semi equipment stocks lately, but here is another subject that may have a place in a well rounded portfolio. The two global income funds I have used in the past are the Templeton funds GIM (Global income) and TEI (Emerging Markets income). If the US dollar follows through on its currently bearish bias, these funds could not only provide a dividend, but also net asset value gains.
A brief technical look at the precious metals sector using daily charts…
GDX remains in a series of higher highs and higher lows, consolidating in a flag down toward the 50 day averages. There is some negative divergence in the MACD and RSI.
We have been talking about the reasons that the next phase in the markets could be an inflationary one…
This is a stunning technical view of another Semi equipment company, Lam Research. With all due caveats about a news-filled, roiled week in the markets, LRCX is making a move today that we can use for our macro theses of Semi Equipment bullishness, an early economic signal and just maybe, a cost-push inflation issue down the road.
The daily chart is breaking to a new high above the April high (which you will recall is our guideline for broad market indexes to trigger a bullish view).
A semi ‘+’ update (pun completely unintended) on Applied Materials being sent to all subscribers (as opposed to email opt-ins) due to our macro theme developing in the Semi Equipment sector.
With the disclaimer that this is a noisy week and I do not trust the broad market’s short-term price signals, I want to stick 100% with the technicals on the Semi Equipment sector to go with the current bullish (fundamental) forward view. As such, here is AMAT, a headline equipment company which, you may recall, issued a stellar quarterly release several weeks ago that we combined with early Book-to-Bill signals to begin developing our view.
We have been noting that India stands out as an investment destination in a mainly bearish global picture and due to the daily chart pullback on INDY, I thought I’d take a closer look. This ‘+’ update is sent to the entire list because of its relevance to ongoing information in weekly reports.
A very simple update (it ended up being a little less simple, as usual) for a very simple situation. We have noted that an anti-USD ‘inflation trade’ bounce has been in progress. This has featured rising stocks, commodities and yes gold bugs, precious metals. It’s Bob Hoye’s “all one market” syndrome and it is predicated on perceptions of a dovish Fed, a weak US dollar and the momentum of speculators.
We have been following the IHI Medical Device ETF for a long while now, as it acted as a bullish guide for the bearish broader markets. It was originally highlighted due to the bullish IHI chart and due to the sector’s tendency, per my experience in Medical Device/Equipment manufacturing, to maintain steady business during periods of economic weakness.