First an admin note related to the opening note in NFTRH 843:
I have heard from several people in response to #843’s opening segment expressing concerns about too much trade talk potentially messing with some peoples’ market management. Of the responses I’ve received, they have been overwhelmingly in the camp that says ‘don’t change anything, we can discern for ourselves what is best for us, but value your messaging’. Those are obviously my words describing their sentiments.
But a minority of subscribers would prefer less information, and to those subscribers I suggest a) unsubscribe from auto emails from nftrh.com (or ask me to do it for you), and b) don’t read the trade log. Due to a majority requesting things stay as they are (well, I’ll always be looking for ways to improve the service) we will continue with NFTRH+ updates like this one, as well as the trade log and associated notes. The log was implemented at the request of multiple subscribers, after all. Please take its disclaimer seriously, because I sure do.
I will, however, think twice before I jump into an update just to make sure I am not going over the top and providing too much static.
US Dollar & Gold/Silver Ratio Status
USD and GSR indicate difficult market liquidity conditions when rising firmly to impulsively together.
They have hung in there despite a week that so far has seen markets try to rally but ultimately come under pressure. Both days ended much weaker than they began. May be nothing, may be something. But USD and GSR are a concern as long as they remain perched bullish and constructive, respectively. Here is their status as Monday’s AI hype in the Semi sector eases (SOX is still technically okay as of today’s close as it looks to fill Monday’s gap up).
USD dropped, but has put in a reversal candle. It does not mean it will not correct, but above 107 to 107.50 it is on the bull until proven otherwise.
GSR has dropped back into its pattern after a short-lived pattern breakout. The pattern is still viable and the GSR is bull biased.
For all the world I thought Monday might have indicated the market option that sees another leg up and an upside blowoff. That could still happen. But the pair of USD and GSR are sneaky bearish indicators for risk markets as they are currently postured. The other option is, after all, that the stock market may have already topped amid all this wonderful “America great again” stuff.
I am still holding my shorts on SPY and QQQ and also a volatility hedge in VIXY. I am waiting for the market to advise whether to lean further into a bullish view or lean further into a bearish one. Frankly, I don’t care which one happens on the near-term. Just gimme direction!
