On the technical side, GDX is doing nothing we did not discuss in the video update on July 19. It is getting a good disturbance during FOMC week, as anticipated.
In that update and especially now, we were/are on watch for the early July gap to fill. A hold of the uptrending SMA 200 keeps the picture technically intact. A deeper drop to fill the sub-28 gap and subsequent hold of that low more painfully keeps the technical picture intact. Again, nothing new in the technicals.
The macro fundamentals for gold mining, already under a lot of stress over the last couple of months, are another matter. With disinflation still in the air, yet backward looking GDP moderately trending up, the signaling is still Goldilocks. A pleasant mix of disinflationary and growth. In other words, not positive for gold or the gold stocks that leverage it. If/when USD resumes its bear move gold miners can tag along with that play but until the macro bubble bursts, they will not be unique.
Subscriber question: How do you think the gold miners will do in an inflationary recession, with nominal GDP growth positive but real growth negative?
Probably not good or at least not good relative to the metals and other commodities if nominal GDP is firm but impaired by rising costs.