The 3 month T-bill yield continues to signal oncoming bear market
Look, NFTRH projected the rally back in Q4, 2022. Therefore, this post is not coming from a perma-anything. It is coming from someone trying to be a realist. If the history of the last two major cyclical bear markets holds true, another one is out in the not too distant future. While this big picture chart has a lot of play in the wheel, time-wise, it is clear that the market is on a script that it was not on last year when the little 2022 bear cycle played out.
The 2023 rally comes against a widening divergence between the T-bill yield and the 2 year Treasury yield. The market rally is correcting last year’s incomplete signal as the divergence intensifies. This as market sentiment is over-bullish and the VIX is on the floor, indicating mass complacency.
In my opinion, the market is, among other things, attending to the lack of an important bear signal during 2022’s bear phase. Today, sentiment (FOMO, MOMO) is accelerating at the precise time people should be aware that the market is setting up a proper bear, as opposed to 2022’s improper one. Either that or the T-bill/2yr signal is no longer valid. I think it is though.
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