Commercial traders now net short as Copper price rises

While the copper price can continue to rise near-term, the picture is turning negative

The bounce back rally in the copper price has been anticipated as part of the Q4-Q1 party theme hosted by Wayne and Garth. But the rally began with a sentiment tailwind from the copper commitments of traders (CoT) – as we noted last summer in NFTRH for several metals, including the Platinum Group Metals – that no longer exists.

What exists currently is post-Covid reopening hype emanating from China, net long speculators and net short commercials. The structure of the copper CoT is not extreme and so the copper price could continue to party on for a while. But the play is probably closer to its end than its beginning, at least when viewed from a CoT standpoint.

copper price and copper commitments of trader
COTbase

On the plus side for the copper price, warehouse stock levels are once again at an extreme low. That’s a supply/demand tailwind when taken at face value. This supply constraint would probably need a global recession in order to ease.

lme copper stock levels
Kitco

For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. Subscribe by Credit Card or PayPal using a link on the right sidebar (if using a mobile device you may need to scroll down) or see all options and more info. Keep up to date with actionable public content at NFTRH.com by using the email form on the right sidebar. Follow via Twitter@NFTRHgt.

Testimonials