It’s the final stages of the originally planned summer rally window from July potentially into September. It is the final stages because the current plan will either play out with a bear market failure or the plan will be proven wrong if the bulls are able to break the bear’s downtrend.
As already noted, speaking as a perhaps over-thinking human, I feel like the bear case is almost too obvious and that combined with the history of my experiences watching sentiment rallies sometimes morph into real rallies and bull market resumption, gives me just a bit of pause.
However, a plan is a plan and that plan was for a terminal summer rally with a setup to short for those who are bearish and want to speculate on that bearishness (as opposed to holding cash and its interest paying equivalents).
SPX (daily) is getting overbought now as it continues to lurk below the downtrending (that’s important) SMA 200. A 62% Fib retrace of the entire decline from the January 4th high is just above the SMA 200 at 4367. Also notice that volume is fading just a bit as the market price rises.
The bear setup is from the SMA 200 (4326) to the 62% Fib retrace level (4367 with an allowance to the 4400 round number). As noted previously, a rise above 4637.30 would wreck the bear case. Otherwise the bear setup is now in view per the parameters noted.
Yield curve hinting signs of steepening; if $UncleBuck resumes bullying, we could be in for an increasing *Fall*. Question is, with $SPX 4300 in the bag, how badly does SPY wanna cop a feelz of 4400?
During the final stages, you often see some nice pops. If natgas manages to take out the June high in the coming days (2-3% up from current levels), it stands a good chance to move up in a big way IMO. High risk high reward trade.