It is still summer silly season and as such it would not be surprising for ES to hold support here and take one more lunge upward during the pre-FOMC time window.
It would also not be surprising for it to resume a bear market after hitting and dropping from the SMA 200. However, as noted in NFTRH 719, that would be the obvious and ‘logical’ outcome during summer trading. But the algos, machines, HFTs and black boxes running summer trading may not be programmed for logical.
For our purposes, a hold at the upper (green line) support area keeps ES in the game from the rally side. A failure and it’ll probably drop to the SMA 50 (3992 and hooking upward) near-term.
The original rally projection, time-wise, was to or through Labor Day.