Gold vs. ‘risk on’, cyclical markets

Gold is regaining its composure vs. cyclical markets

It’s a process, folks. An extended and annoying process. Our brains fire off in real time but the markets move over time frames. Using ETFs for the actual markets, let’s note that…

GLD/SPY has held the intermediate uptrend, aiming for a new cycle high.

GLD/ACWX is a bit weaker but still constructive.

GLD/FXI has been getting drubbed lately, so the China rally is informing the above.

GLD/DBC is up today, but man that trend is hard down. A recovery vs. commodities would have to start somewhere but today shows no technical backing yet that somewhere is here.

GLD/USO shows the fundamental impairment of gold mining operations alive and well (but as with the commodity tracker above, a bounce today).

GLD/DBB is something that should eventually matter as the more counter-cyclical metal resumes upward vs. the cyclical ones. As the inflation eats the economy, this should continue to improve.

GLD/UDN shows a would-be recovery to the intermediate trend by gold vs. global currencies (ex-USD).

GLD/BITO shows Gold thumping the Bitcoin tracker.

Last but never least (in my book), the Gold/Silver ratio is in a flag consolidation but still bull trending. If it breaks back upward the pain on the macro is likely to get worse.

The above would represent the 2 horsemen of the Apocalypse riding again to destroy more liquidity on the macro. Especially considering that the other horseman, USD, is already riding in the face of inflation and the hawking Fed due up soon.

It’s a process.

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