We’ve been noting a Dow Theory non-confirmation in NFTRH over the last few months as the Transports have declined while the Dow has gone on to tick new highs. The ratio (2nd panel below) obviously tanked and represents that divergence. However, nominal TRAN has the technical look of something one might want to buy as it has pulled back within an uptrend and broken its … Continue reading NFTRH+; a look into the Dow Transports
Copper bounces from the 200 day moving average It’s no surprise that copper is bouncing from the up-trending SMA 200. It would also not be surprising to see it fail where resistance meets the SMA 50 around 4.30. Equally unsurprising would be a break through resistance. It’s just the nature of the current macro as I have indicators toward liquidity loss and deflation as well … Continue reading Copper: Happy face or pukey face upcoming?
With all due caveats about seasonal averages (these cover 30 years) and the variations from them in any given year, below are the facts of what these commodities have done, on average over those years. Gold’s current bounce is matching a sweet spot on the average, where an interim top comes in October and a secondary low in December before a hard bottom and upturn. … Continue reading NFTRH+; Seasonal averages for several commodities, including Au & Ag