“Around This Time Last Year”

Not to pick on MarketWatch (this very writer has on rare occasion highlighted posts of mine) but MW is the MSM outlet that I watch the most (it is valuable for providing the up-to-the-minute stuff going on out there) You can click the headline for the article…

The view for December 2019 is our “well, duh… “ moment of the day because the damn trade war headlines have been infesting the market for most of 2019. So why not end it that way?

Shah provides our call of the day, as she cautions that equities are at risk of another selloff if a partial trade deal can’t be reached before the next China tariff deadline on December 15.

“If that trade deal doesn’t happen and if everything falls apart and it feels like tensions are getting worse, then I think we are facing a potential repeat of last year, and it will be worse,” Shah told MarketWatch. She explains a “bigger shock move” would be probable because liquidity falls so much in December. (Read more about why another December meltdown is easily repeatable.)

In 2018’s “well, duh… “ moment Ms. Shah was probably staring at a chart of SPX when she made her astute prediction. “Around this time last year” (my chart comment points exactly to Nov. 27th, 2018) SPX had already tanked the moving averages and begun to turn the trends down. It was already half way to the Christmas Eve massacre buy point.

Around this time a year ago, Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors, warned that stocks were facing an imminent selloff.


I don’t pick on these entities to be mean spirited. But you may know that I HATE!!! these fucking “strategist who predicted… “ headlines with an almost rabid vehemence. Richard Russell (known as “Sir Richard the good” by Jim Sinclair and the gold “community” because he was well, pro-gold) to his herd “Instructions: sell all stocks, except mining stocks” just before the miners took a dirt nap and stocks went up up up and up some more, the Stanberry/Dent “man who predicted” infomercials disguised as content by Taboola and Outbrained, and stuff in the MSM with sensational headlines like the above.

It’s all dangerous maybe not to your financial health, but to that of the legions of less experienced investors getting hatched out there each and every day who believe market gurus exist. I don’t like it. None of us can predict. Trying to predict is stupid. Stop it, already. Just do consistent work.

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