Last week we noted that a former raging gold bull recently stared at his charts and proclaimed gold very bearish and copper very bullish. That was not gold bearish.
He was one of 3 Golden Bullhorns we noted back in Q1 2019 as a warning to that oncoming correction.
Today we note that one of his two fellow Bullhorns has also stared at his chart and flipped bearish this week. As with Bullhorn #1 he’s not named here because he is independent and not a professionally marketed entity like Casey or Dent. But he has flipped and is talking as of yesterday about how we may possibly see a “strong move to the downside” in gold.
Well, gold resides at 1453 right now and my best guess downside target is and has been the 1420 to 1425 area. We can do that standing on our heads. Considering gold is more than a 100 bucks off the high (when we posted that gold, along with long-term Treasury bonds were at risk together) this week’s Bullhorn flip seems right in line, as if to be finally turned by a correction whose job it’s been to flip these Bullhorns one by one. I think the third is still out there bullish, as always, while suggesting hedging and whatnot along the way as applicable. He’s consistent, I’ll give him that.
I take note of the two flippers not because I think I am smart and they are not, or because I am a gold price perma-bull (you know better than that) or because I like to pick on people (I’ve had some absolute lunatics virtually come after me through these here internet pipes, and it sucks). I take note because they tend to make grandiose, titillating, macho and/or greed & fear-inspiring proclamations with a certainty that I myself usually do not have. I believe the good ones almost always have a level of questioning of their views* and that rookies or promoters make big, confident calls as if the reader should just get behind the call and surrender all critical thought to it (because it’s confident, after all).
Well, newbies are hatched every day and somebody must be buying (or selling) the surety that some writers state their views with. It’s notable when a trend is months along and then the flips come about. It’s sort of like the opposite of last February was to the bull side with the 3 Bullhorns.
Bottom line is that as my bearish views moderate that moderation is aided by some of the more visible gold bug chartists out there flipping bearish. I mean guys, charts are just one component of what should be a well formed viewpoint.
* Because experience has taught them humility and because nobody knows the future and well, success is hard; it’s not digestible in a grand sound bite.
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