A simple update using pictures and a few words to keep us abreast of the macro situation. Much of it reviews the work to date.
First off, the VIX is and has been a high risk indicator on the US market.
This as SPX has flown through its bull turnstile (to new all-time highs). While the bulls have the ball, the alternate scenario is a bull trap false breakout. So far, the bull scenario is holding up.
The front end of the market leadership chain, SOX/NDX is also holding up.
As is the back end, NDX/SPX.
Inflation gauges are still on the reflation theme, by continuing to bounce at least.
The global stock market is in the same general short-term stance as the US SPX.
China and several other individual global areas continue to look constructive.
The commodity complex is still firm to its bounce.
Another reflation area, financials, are still firm as well.
While the Silver/Gold ratio gets dinged but remains on the intermediate trend. If this holds up, fine, the macro would have a tail wind. If it does break down however, have caution across the macro.
Gold and silver are getting hit but not quite breaking down.
The miners (HUI) have lost the SMA 50 but not quite broken down from what could be a bear flag. If this flag breaks down (by dropping below 206) our original plan of a deeper correction to the 180s (and the SMA 200) could be back on.
What I see above is a picture of the macro the way we’ve been viewing it to this moment. Caution signals would be introduced by a rising VIX and even more so, a breakdown in the Silver/Gold ratio, if applicable. For now, risk ‘off’ bonds and gold are correcting while the risk ‘on’ cyclical world is still rallying.