It was nearly 2 years ago when we noted that Wall Street and the financial media were leading people astray in a trend chasing exercise with a Semi sector that was actually topping out.
Meanwhile, for most of this year we have been asking ‘hey, what gives with the bullish Semi sector?’, with the most recent post on the subject on September 19th.
Today we are treated to two 5G Semi stocks getting pleasured by Cowen (both are up significantly on today’s pump)…
…and best of all, the MSM is on the job (the same source that brought you the wildly bullish fund manager finding value in stocks like LRCX and AMAT just as they topped out (1st link above links that Q4 2017 article).
Frankly, I am not prepared to call this a contrary indicator as I was in Q4 2017 at the top. That is because as we’ve been noting all year the cycle has been in the dumps and still is. If you’ve read my posts, you have seen the projections for an H2 2019 bottom out and a 2020 upturn.
Neither am I calling it confirmation of a new Semi cycle. But I see no reason to back off the constructive Semi view just because the media are only 9 months late. The article we used as a contrary indicator in Q4 2017 was 5 damn years late.
But I’ll tell you what… there had better be a new cycle coming in 2020 and 5G (and IoT and all other new technologies and initiatives that have supposedly transformed Semi into a less volatile cyclical sector) had better be as big as projected because the media and analyst community are again pumping a thing that is at all-time highs.
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