Gold vs…

Time for another installment of Gold vs., as we review the counter-cyclical metal vs. it’s cyclical counterparts using ETFs. But first, the gold price vs. the silver price is closing the day in breakdown mode, and that is the first inkling that the world may not be ending, but changing.

GLD/SLV is breaking down, as implied by this morning’s Silver/Gold ratio post.

gold silver ratio

GLD/SPY looks to take out the December high.

gld vs. spy

GLD/ACWX is long past the December high. These two charts are pretty serious macro cyclical stress indicators and they continue to work in favor of the macro view for gold mining.

gld vs. acwx

GLD/DBC is on the same message and is a combo of macro and sector fundamental positivity for the gold mining sector. It’s the fundamentals as represented by these three charts that have kept us resolute on the gold sector thus far.

gold dbc ratio

GLD/USO directly informs the gold sector’s bottom line fundamentals as product (gold) clobbers cost input (oil/energy). Interestingly, gold is not at a new high vs. oil. But the trend is up and it’s not overbought.

gold vs. oil

GLD/DBB is way up there as the industrial metals have tanked nominally as well as in ratio to gold. If we are correct about a future inflation play the IMs are setting up a significant buying opportunity. But for now, it’s counter-cyclical city.

gold vs. industrial metals

Okay, so that’s a look at a few of gold’s ratios to more cyclical items. The macro is completely on plan to our blueprints laid out back in Q4 2018. The macro will change, but for now the trends are as they have been and gold is the winner.

People should realize that we are most definitely not in a one size fits all macro phase. Things changed in 2018 and they are likely to change again in 2019 or 2020. I love this market for those reasons. You don’t just show up, assume risk and look like a genius.

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