As far as broad stocks go I am well-biased long this market. But I do hold 3 sector shorts and the SPX short fund SPXS, which was reduced yesterday along with a short on gold because I find I may be over complicating things with too many positions working off/against each other.
Aside from one casino patron possibly overthinking some things in-week, let’s quiet things down and see what the daily chart has to say about the premier US index. What is says is that SPX bounced just above the key support area that coincides with the slightly up sloping SMA 200, took back the 2880 area and now nests upon the EMA 20 (dashed line), which has supported and resisted many short-term twitches in this market.
If SPX takes out the rising SMA 50 and the red resistance line it resumes the bull. As long as it dwells under there it keeps a bear case open. Here and once again filed under possibly overthinking, my main issue with the bear case – other than the major uptrend – is the risky state of heretofore risk ‘off’ Treasury bonds. Maybe bonds (and gold) will keep going up but they are due (and apparently getting) a pullback. My question is whether the Good Ship Lollipop might set sail again if recent anxieties (from the trade war to the media’s useless yield curve blitz) ease.
RSI is just barely negative and above its EMA 20, MACD is negative but triggering its lines up and STO is still in positive short-term bounce mode well above 20 and trying to take out 50.
More generally, the yellow shaded area shows the point SPX would need to take out to go officially bearish for a serious trade.
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