A Look at Precious Metals Seasonal Patterns

Based on 30 years of data gold was fairly normal to its seasonal average until dropping to disconnect from it in April. From Sentimentrader

gold seasonal

I don’t mind that in the least because it makes sense given gold’s big bid in the fear-stoked Q4 2018 and disconnect from companions like CNH/USD. You know, we can rant and rave about manipulation and evil incarnate in markets but sometimes it really is just about equilibrium. We’ve been noting this chart in NFTRH, showing that gold got to too far ahead of this companion. That has been addressed.

So gold’s seasonal dip below average makes sense. What’s more, while things may be lame until August, there is much more good than bad on average remaining in 2019. Now, if the macro comes in line, well…

As for silver, look at that disconnect. Silver bugs have been summarily annihilated, all while silver does some great downside work to support. June is a bloodbath on average, but it appears that may have been dialed in a month or two early this year. I like it, especially considering the improving Commitments of Traders for silver (and gold) as noted in this post on Friday.

silver seasonal

As for the gold stocks, HUI is its usual erratic mess, seasonally. But it is dipping at a time when seasonally it shows no specific tendency to do so.

hui seasonal

This one removes the noise and shows that summer can be volatile, but that volatility goes both ways. Wondering if maybe Huey is ahead of schedule this year as well. That will very likely depend on the macro. In other words, are base metals really leading the Good Ship Lollypop downward or will Goldilocks continue her gluttonous ways?

hui seasonal

This is a post about seasonality, so it will not attempt to answer that question. It will just leave you with these pictures to consider in your own management. We’ll attempt to flesh out some answers in NFTRH 550 this weekend.

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