A bigger picture view of weekly market/ETF charts on what seemed like a cranky day in the markets where gold and silver got cracked (on cue it seems, after the most recent gold analyst bull horns. Ref. this morning’s pre-market post on gold and silver for another review of the technicals and CoT, although nothing new is presented since NFTRH 546.
The crankiness extended to commodities in general and global stocks were wobbly as well. So lets start with global markets and then take a look at the US. There is not much new here, but I think it is worth keeping up with.
What I found interesting are some of the outliers, as Africa has held the weekly moving average (moving averages are selected for previous tendency to act as support/resistance) and it along with Vietnam and the FMs in general are trying to turn those averages up. Others are not so good, as we’ve been noting each week. But some of these are curiously bullish looking.
More outliers show Eastern Europe (fund includes heavy Russia) trying to turn up, Poland stabilizing and Egypt functioning okay. The rest are a mess.
Over in the mainstream everything is intact to an ongoing rally situation. Are we going full bull on the macro? That is still to be determined, but the trend is intact as of now.
And it is the same here. So many charts continue to look like holds/adds. For cash management (and portfolio rotation) I took profits on FXI today and an individual Russian stock that went too high too fast, but I am holding exposure in both of those countries until we get clear signs that the post Q4 rally is correcting.
Turning to the Good Ship Lollypop, the view is not only fully intact but the RUT has continued to get with the program as well.
Everybody here is functional to bullish, with pro-interest rate items (generally speaking) Financials, Industrials and Materials making decent moves lately.
Medical Device continues to dose off for a nap and Bio/Pharma are not inspiring but are also not bearish. Airlines could get interesting if oil gets pressured. In a related theme, I added IYT (Transports) today for the daily chart and am watching the Airlines as well. Ditto for DEfense.
Finally, everything here is functional to bullish as well. The Homies look good after our NFTRH+ highlight but they are in the opposite interest rate boat to the Financials. So maybe some XLF/IYF might be a play (speaking personally) for balance in the short-term. Retail is sneaky bullish looking.
Bottom Line
Global and US stock markets are intact to the ongoing rally. If commodities weaken we could have a warning on global markets and on US sectors that don’t depend on or care for Goldilocks (like Materials, Banks, etc.)
Meanwhile, gold is doing what it probably should do as the fear trade unwinds and the happy trades remain intact. I’ll probably do a separate update on the precious metals if anything notable goes on. But as of now nothing has changed there since our last report.
