Quant Edges: You Can’t Argue With History

Here’s the thing, historicals and analogs fail to repeat all the time. Just ask Tom McClellan…

What Happened to the Eurodollar COT Model?

Or just ask me as I once had some 30 month cycle thingamajig on the S&P 500 calling for a top that SPX blew right through and mocked me about.

But one thing that cannot be argued with is history. It happened, it is finite. Period.

So I thought I’d call your attention to my favorite Quant, Rob Hanna and his latest article noting the scary sounding Hindenberg Omen and its large number of stocks hitting new highs and new lows.

Our Extremely Split Market & What That Has Meant Historically

He measures the performance of SPX from 1970 after such signals and he comes at it from several different angles. Do check out the link directly above for all the different conditions.

The results folks, are not at all bullish. That’s what history says, and it has me still considering whether SPX’s recent break back above the January high might be a bull trap after all.

All today did was fill a short-term gap, keeping the market above the danger zone, but it will be interesting to what da boyz may have planned for the 2nd half of September. It is after all, not positive based on another historical, the 30yr average September seasonal. From Sentimentrader

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