This immediately reminded me of Thanksgiving 2012 when my brother-in-law, a financial adviser, told me how all the best fund managers he knew were raising cash because of a crash that was going to result that December due to the Fiscal Cliff (Kabuki Dance) that the media were hyping back then. Now, I can’t imagine any group of fund managers going all cash because well, it’s other peoples’ money and besides their charters tend to be ‘stay invested’. But that’s what he implied; heavy cash.
I uttered back… “bullish” and then failed to go heavily in to my own view. Lessons learned.
The following January we began getting our cyclical signals from the Semi Equipment sector and the positive cycle was born. Here is a graph of the Semiconductor Equipment Book-to-Bill ratio I made a few years ago illustrating the cyclical upturn from back then.
The point is, the fund managers were massively guarded at the red circle. Maybe things will move in quicker time amid the current Trade War Food Fight (TWFF). After all, the market is going nicely to our projections now. Bearish sounding things like the headline above however, are NOT bearish. As the S&P 500’s price gets to a logical area we are watching, I’d hope to see headlines like that off radar and over bullish readings aplenty in order to actually go bearish.
As for global trade, in addition to the Baltic Dry Index we reviewed in this post yesterday, this graph from CCM’s post at Biiwii does not yet show an inkling of negativity for global trade. It could of course reverse to negative at any time, but that big headline above will likely not be in play when it does.
Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for an in-depth weekly market report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas. You can also keep up to date with plenty of actionable public content at NFTRH.com by using the email form on the right sidebar. Or follow via Twitter @BiiwiiNFTRH, StockTwits or RSS. Also check out the quality market writers at Biiwii.com.