USD was in a very good contrary sentiment position into late January, as the global anti-USD inflation trades ripped higher and USD dropped. It then flattened out and formed a bottom and base through some up and down market volatility, and has since put on the inevitable rally that its previous sentiment profile and pro-USD markets like the US Small Caps (which began leading the market back in February) implied was coming.
In NFTRH 505 we presented this CoT graphic from COTbase.com showing a massive lurch to the over bullish side by large Specs and to the short side by Commercial Hedgers.
But now I’ve dug up some other data that contradicts the above, showing that the CoT positioning is heading toward a contrary bearish setup but not there yet. From FreeCotData.com…
Somebody’s graphical data is on the fritz.
Sentimentrader.com checks in with a view of the Commercial Hedgers’ activity that seems more in line with Thing 2 above. Hedgers are not bearish on a bigger picture. This graph and the Commercials line on the 1st graph above do each show around -25,000.
As does the CFTC, showing that Commercials increased shorts by 10,943 to the tune of 24,922 while Specs got longer. But given the graphical conflicts above, I think the buck is trending toward a future bearish situation, but not there yet.
Finally, the public is over bullish on USD, although not as briskly so as they usually get at an important top. Also, some competing currencies are sporting improving but not yet extreme contrary bullish setups.
So contrary to a graph with what may be an anomaly of some kind Uncle Buck retains the ability to continue ripping the global inflation trade a new one if he so desires. My apologies for presenting a graph without cross referencing it with others. No excuses. Hopefully the above adds some context.
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