A More Detailed Short Thesis for Inogen (INGN)

As posted over at SeekingAlpha. I really don’t want to get too much into individual stock management here at my site. Best to do that where all the world’s best stock pumpers congregate. Except of course, my article takes a bearish view…

The Inogen Valuation Trap

Now, let’s review a little history since I am writing from the perspective of my previous life as a manufacturing guy. In February of 2014 I published this piece explaining why buttoned down analysts, many of whom have never scuffed their shoes on a shop floor, were (I assume) unwittingly pumping a falsehood about 3-D Printing from an abstracted perch in their neat office buildings (I assume). The competition for 3Dp was going to be fierce and the industrial applications relatively limited for this supposedly new (I’d been aware of it for at least a decade before I wrote the article) manufacturing miracle. At least per the expectations built into the hype of the time coming from the financial analysis and media complex.

That was based on my real world experience and so too is the reason I ask readers to consider why this stock, INGN, may be over valued. According to Yahoo Finance the forward P/E ratio is a hair under 90 and the P/S ratio is over 14. Comparatively, ISRG has a forward P/E of 41 and P/S of 16.50, BSX 20 & 4.8, MDT 15+ & 4 and EW 29 & 9.

With any luck I’ll be holding this one short for a good, long while.

BTW, the old profile picture is from back when I had hair. As the spot in the back got larger I decided to shave the whole damn thing. I like it. :-)

Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for an in-depth weekly market report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas. You can also keep up to date with plenty of actionable public content at NFTRH.com by using the email form on the right sidebar. Or follow via Twitter @BiiwiiNFTRH, StockTwits or RSS. Also check out the quality market writers at Biiwii.com.