With the tail wind of long-term interest rates conspicuously reaching our targets amid great fanfare…
USD (UUP shown here) has finally caught a bid. Sooner or later it was going to put on a bounce to the declining 200 day moving average. The world after all, had been on the other side of the trade amid the great Trump reflation.
Normally, I’d say there is a very high probability that USD is only on a bounce because its daily moving averages are trending down. And that may be the case, but there remains the complication that USD is bouncing from long-term support.
I am getting a minor draw down on the widespread market correction (i.e. I am not short enough to completely offset the bear and the precious metals are not yet acting consistently contrary) but with 80+% in cash (Uncle Buck’s T-Bill equivalents paying income courtesy of the rate hiking Fed) I am just biding time until the stock market either confirms a bear by creating new downtrends or not, until yields either break through the limiters (and hold them) or not and until USD proves the bounce is real… or not.
In other words, those drab words I’ve been boring NFTRH subscribers with for months now: Balance and patience.
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