alice

NFTRH; In-Day Look at ‘Inflation Trade’ Signals

Ref. recent NFTRH notes about ‘inflation trade’ resumption and ref. this post put up in pre-market today.

A big time launch in IM vs. Gold. It appears the deflation-tinged angst of February-March is behind us, at least from the perspective of inflation traders. The negative signals were a whipsaw.

Palladium/Gold is similar.

But here is where it gets interesting. Silver/Gold is making an impulsive looking launch type move, as we have been expecting… for ever and ever it seems.

Inflation expectations gauge TIP/TLT is still contained.

But inflation expectations gauge TIP/IEF is getting out of the barn. Recall that TIP/IEF led TIP/TLT by more than 3 months before it too turned up in December.

The signals in the inflation senstitives vs. gold look impulsive, and if that continues to include silver and if gold and silver hold up vs. the stock market, it could be an across the board rally in commodities and precious metals. We are probably finding out now why the Industrial Metals charts remained so doggedly bullish for the last few months… because they were bullish.

It’s just one day, but this one day looks impulsive as in a potential launch. Let’s gauge it day by day and week by week. But I think that the macro is coming down on the side of inflation right now, possibly similar to the 2002-2008 period. The going will be volatile, but the impulsiveness on display is notable.