No Longer a Bond Holder, But There Remains a Lesson Here

The lesson is that when the media loudly trumpet Thing 1 (in this case the bond bear that Bill, Ray and Paul were alarming everybody about) you might want to do Thing 2 (remain calm and don’t take the bait) because the media follow trends already in place. It’s how it harvests, churns and sells eyeballs.

The headline linked above (the Tudor Jones joins Gross & Dalio headline) hit just after the bottom in the 20+ year bond fund, but the Gross and Dalio BOND BEAR stuff had been carpet bombed all over the place all through the bottoming process.

Here’s TLT now. It’s just a bounce pattern with bonds still in a daily downtrend. But the point is that said bottom was made by the likes of Bill, Ray and Paul. “Experts” all.

tlt

Everybody got on that side of the boat as bearish sentiment became unsustainable!

10yr treasury bonds

I for one am not going to invest in US debt, especially with the economic illiterates currently in charge. I took profits (including interest) on my holdings of 3-10 year bonds and now will hold a majority of ‘cash’ in T-bills (SHV, which benefits directly from each Fed rate hike) along with some 1-3 year exposure (SHY). But the point is still the point; there is nothing new under the sun. The media trumpet, the herds follow and then… boink, they get punished (either maxi or mini). Every time.

In fact, here’s a tout I’ve been making for many months now. This cash is no longer trash considering the risks in well, risk.

Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for an in-depth weekly market report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas; or the free eLetter for an introduction to our work. You can also keep up to date with plenty of actionable public content at NFTRH.com by using the email form on the right sidebar. Or follow via Twitter @BiiwiiNFTRH, StockTwits or RSS. Also check out the quality market writers at Biiwii.com.