Uncle Buck has had two targets. Simply enough, they are the 50 day average and the 200 day average. Target 1 is in and today Unc is down hard to short-term support (as the asset party unsurprisingly continues to pump).
The monthly chart shows USD still at long-term support. If the pattern above breaks down we’d probably get a new surge in the risk ‘on’ inflation trade (and by the way, long-term Treasury yields). If it holds and Unc eventually targets the SMA 200, a good bout of risk ‘off’ would be likely.
So what’s Uncle Buck going to do? Bueller?
It was easier to forecast a bounce from long-term support a few weeks ago. Now with the dollar having hit one of its targets I for one am a bit less firm on on the view. The support level on the daily chart above should be respected no matter what happens. If USD loses it we probably go with inflationary intensification. If USD holds it, we probably get a whiff of the opposite.
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